Explore Q2 2026 failure rates across 354,415 Backblaze drives, plus standout models and emerging CMR, SMR, and HAMR storage technologies.

296 points•HieronymusBosch•1 day ago•105 comments•

105 comments

realityfactchexabout 21 hours ago
In 2013 Backblaze saw ~14% avg failure rate at 3 years 3 months. Drive useful life: 4 years, roughly.

In 2021, Backblaze saw ~14% failure rate at 7 years 9 months. Drive useful life: about 6 years.

That gave us what was a stable-seeming, old "replace drives at 5 years, or you're getting risky" rule of thumb (unless you prefer to replace on failure, of course).

In 2025, Backblaze saw ~5% failure rate at 10 years 3 months. Drive useful life: ~10 years, roughly!

Thanks for all the HDD improvements, industry!

cortesoftabout 10 hours ago
I wonder if any of the improvements in failure rates were caused by changes in how backblaze operates the drives? Like, have they learned things about cooling or improved write leveling or better power management or something.

Could be better controllers, or better driver firmware, or something.

Just curious where in the chain the improvements come from.

Ekarosabout 17 hours ago
I find the upgrade quite surprising. I would have expected them to be mature already in 2013. Or maybe there is change in selection. Blackblaze did go for cheap drives before. But with most users moving to SSD as default drive maybe overall HDDs have moved to more reliable segment. As in lower quality drives are just not made for desktops in mass volumes.
magicalhippoabout 16 hours ago
Part of it was drive quality. The 2011 flood that impacted Western Digital[1] caused them to buy a lot of lower-quality Seagate drives which affected their stats for years.

But I think part of it is the modern densities have less tolerance for manufacturing issues, so if the disks work they work well. Kinda like the Mars rovers which only had to work 90 days but they really had to work, so they ended up working for years.

[1]: https://spectrum.ieee.org/a-flood-on-the-diskdrive-market

mzhaaseabout 16 hours ago
I remember back in the late nineties / early 2000s drive failures really were pretty common. During my childhood I think I had three. I've never had a catastrophic failure since then, really came a long way.
anthomtbabout 7 hours ago
My father was deep into photography in that era and digitized all his photos. He was understandably paranoid about drive failures. The solution? ZIP disks everywhere! Cue massive family stress when the disk containing his competition entry was nowhere to be found and definitely in one of the kids rooms. It was, of course, found 3 days later in the glove box of his truck (thank you for reading my lowercase-t trauma dump).
TacticalCoderabout 7 hours ago
> I remember back in the late nineties / early 2000s drive failures really were pretty common.

Yup. And most people wouldn't bother but typically you could RMA HDDs: the terms were quite generous. I was in Europe and did learn, as a teenager, how to RMA HDDs to get shiny replacements (IIRC for example for Seagate HDDs I'd send them to the Netherlands and then after a few weeks I'd get a new one by the mail).

mrlonglongabout 12 hours ago
I once screamed at a 2.1GB Seagate hard disk and it died.

Pretty crap.

jasomillabout 15 hours ago
This is broadly consistent with my own experience at smaller scale. Out of a dozen or so 2TB HGST drives in use for 10+ years (mostly Ultrastar SATA, with a few Deskstars that may or may not be mechanically identical), I've had only one failure, and that was of a bare drive that was outside my control, so I have no idea how it was handled. And this was in a dusty environment with no air conditioning, not a datacenter.

Likewise with SSDs. Given their slightly more write intensive than ordinary desktop workloads, I'm reasonably confident that the capacitors in my 10-year-old enterprise SSDs (HGST SAS with Intel flash) will fail before the flash.

tiffanyhabout 8 hours ago
Could this be a situation of extremes … where the drive either (a) fails early in its life … or (b) lives a very long life.
usefulcatabout 7 hours ago
That could be true regardless of average drive lifetime..
sgammonabout 23 hours ago
Tables with headers that scroll differently from their body is a horror I had not imagined until I clicked this link
ketzuabout 9 hours ago
Separate horizontal scrollbars on header, footer and body is a awfully funny idea.
adithyassekharabout 21 hours ago
Oh no, I thought it was just wonky UI. This is bad. Header columns are no longer attached to the body columns.
Centigonalabout 22 hours ago
I envy your lack of familiarity with excel/sheets
dymkabout 22 hours ago
I’ve never seen an excel sheet with a sticky header broken in this way
Computer0about 21 hours ago
It’s just poor ux on mobile
reenorapabout 19 hours ago
Hard drives.... I remember those things... didn't I used to use them before the Great HDD and SSD Extinction of 2025-2026?

Seriously, I had to replace 2 hard drives in my NAS this year like a bad luck lottery and my hard drives have doubled in price. I was terrified that my NVMe was failing as well.

someonebaggyabout 10 hours ago
As I see it, the prices are basically what they were in 2020. Not ideal, but survivable. I had a hard drive in 2020, and probably so did you. Since 2020, they dropped in half, and then they doubled again.
pjdesnoabout 7 hours ago
My take on hard drive economics is that the cost of an HDD is relatively constant, modulo the platter count, while capacity increases over time, as the components are pretty much the same in each generation.

There's one exception to this - HAMR added additional components, and a corresponding increase in BOM cost, but there's probably a learning curve on this.

However the recent AI data center boom is probably hitting HDDs in two ways - (a) general demand for anything datacenter-related, and (b) high DRAM prices, with most HDDs containing 256-512MB of DDR3. (I haven't physically examined the newest drives - they may be DDR4 and go beyond 512MB; also the 40TB supposedly includes NAND flash, adding yet more cost)

KronisLVabout 16 hours ago
Thankfully for many folks there's the option of going either with whitelabel or recertified drives!

I think for the folks in the US this was a site that works: https://www.goharddrive.com/default.php

Whereas for those in the EU there's this: https://datablocks.dev/

For the second link, you'll have to ignore the horribly tasteless AI slop image for the site background (someone should e-mail them about it or something), the site itself is legit, bought some drives from them: https://blog.kronis.dev/blog/buying-some-drives-from-datablo...

fc417fc802about 15 hours ago
Those have also shot up though. The past couple years is the first time I can recall cost per GB increasing rather than decreasing in a sustained manner. And it's been all forms of storage.
SirMasterabout 10 hours ago
My 14 TB HGST drives were $135 3 years ago on that site, and now they are $360... I don't see how this is any good sign.
nalekberovabout 16 hours ago
Never buy a recertified drive, talking from my own experience, my recertified Seagate Exos X16 failed exactly after a year. They are very cheap for a reason.

It failed for a reason before, so it will likely fail again before the end of its usual lifecycle.

m4rtinkabout 18 hours ago
Yeah, this madness has to stop.

I usually don't spite people or companies but in this case I hope all these AI slop bullshit machines fail & fail hard.

So that we can get hardware at sane prices for actually useful thing. And to serve as a warning to never ever do such a stupidly disruptive shit ever again.

someonebaggyabout 10 hours ago
It's not the AI tech itself, it's that a select set of people have been given far too much money - anything they decide to invest in could be like this. AI isn't even the first - GPU prices were driven up by Ethereum miners, and just like AI, Nvidia flirted with exiting the customer sector and only selling to miners.
literalAardvarkabout 19 hours ago
12TB is still cheaper than I bought it.

Yeah I'd prefer it to be even cheaper but the prices for HDDs aren't too bad.

piva00about 18 hours ago
I've been tracking 12TB HDD prices for replacing a faulty one in my NAS for the past 6 months, I bought 4x 12TB HDD in 2024 for a total of 13k SEK (around 1300 USD) and right now a single one of the same brand/model is selling for 6750-7000 SEK (~675-700 USD).

It is 2x the price of just 2 years ago, it's too bad.

reenorapabout 18 hours ago
Where? Every one that I've seen is double from last year's price.
SirMasterabout 10 hours ago
I bought my 14TB drives 3 years ago for $135 each and now they are like $300...
Gigachadabout 24 hours ago
Something that's interested me is how hard drive capacities have continuously gone up, but read and write speeds have not really changed. To the point where it would take multiple days to read these new high capacity drives.

I wonder what the use case for them is, they aren't ideal for RAID as they would take far too long to rebuild the array in a drive failure, but they also aren't great for long term cold storage. Perhaps they are ideal for periodic backups where you want to take a daily 1TB backup of a server or CCTV where you don't really care about backing up the data as it's all deleted on schedule anyway.

ssl-3about 17 hours ago
What's "far too long"? Why is it too long?

I keep my important stuff with ZFS raidz2.

It doesn't matter much to me if the overall process of replacing a dead drive can be done in 40 minutes or if it drags out to 40 hours. The storage system is still alive, still available for reading and writing, and still redundant for that entire time. It can take as long as it takes.

My break-glass-in-case-of-emergency offsite backups are done with restic over the network, so I only had to send 1 initial copy. That first copy took quite a long time. But restic is pretty clever about how it handles things; all subsequent daily backups are what might best be described as incremental-ish. They contain only recent changes and are pretty small with the usual churn rate on this particular pile of data.

(This matters because it keeps the cost of keeping it running quite low, which means that backups actually happen instead of being just a good idea. :) )

---

I'd probably pick different methods if I had a real budget for this stuff, but even then: Why would I be motivated to care about how long it takes to replace a hard drive?

justincormackabout 8 hours ago
Because thats a reduced redundancy period, and the longer it takes the more likely another drive will fail during that time.
eyegorabout 20 hours ago
Spinning rust is still the only cost effective answer to redundant 10+ tb storage. If you have 4+ disks, use raid 6 or raid 10 and you get decent fault tolerance too. Raid 10 also increases write performance but it's a bit less robust imo and more expensive per gb.

As for speed it's mainly tied to rpm and the market decided no one wants higher failure rates / lower mtbf for marginal speed gains.

If you need speed and capacity, throw an ssd or two in front of a raid disk array for caching with primocache or whatever.

jasomillabout 15 hours ago
When you're regularly working with largely sequential datasets with sizes ranging from 100GB to >1TB that you're not processing at speeds in excess of 100MB/sec, hard drives are very much good enough.

Especially now that the same 4TB NVMe SSDs I was buying for $300 are now selling for over $1,000.

In my case, the source of the data is S3, so there's no need for redundancy, as the hard drive is effectively a local cache for cloud storage and the work isn't nearly so time-critical that an occasional failure would be more than a mild annoyance to a customer, if that.

Same for archival backups. Faster recovery time than Glacier Deep Archive, less cost over a period of years, simpler and less expensive than tape for modest volume.

Gigachadabout 13 hours ago
I'm not doubting the usefulness of hard drives in general, just the ones above 20TB where it would take you most of a week to write to the drive. Hard drive fill times have been steadily going up to the point it becomes almost impractical to use these 30tb drives.

I guess if you have it all backed up in S3 it's fine, but if you put this thing in a NAS and one drive dies, your NAS is going to spend the whole week rebuilding where it's running at 100%, and another drive dying during this means data loss.

makeitdoubleabout 21 hours ago
For one, home servers can go on maintenance mode (read only?) for a day or two, it will be fine most of the time.

In bigger applications, you have enough redundancy to allow one or two nodes to go down for a while. If a company had terabytes upon terabytes of critical data, having a multi-tiered storage would make sense, even of a full backup restore would take a days.on some tiers.

someonebaggyabout 10 hours ago
RAID 5 being too risky doesn't invalidate the whole concept. You can use RAID 6 with two parity drives instead of one, or something higher level like ZFS or Ceph. If you have a trustworthy backup and can tolerate an amount of downtime risk, you can even run RAID 0 or mergerfs on your main array. Many ways to arrange storage.
Ellis_devabout 14 hours ago
Always interesting to see if my anecdotal Seagate failures align with the stats. WD Red's usually pull through for me.

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