225 points•rbanffy•13 days ago•181 comments•

181 comments

BigTTYGothGF12 days ago
There's a lot of people in this thread who see "North Korea" and "nuclear test" and get fired up but would otherwise shrug if it were instead, say, "Oklahoma" and "fracking".

The supplemental information is available and says: > Our earthquake catalog consists primarily of small events with magnitudes of < 2.0 and there were 1399 of them.

The cited Ren&al says: > The magnitudes of these seismic events primarily range from 1.5 to 2.5 and that there were 647 of them.

USGS (https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/earthquake-and-energy-comp...) says that a magnitude 2.0 earthquake is the equivalent energy of 56kg of explosives, which is more than I'd want to be around but I think for people who actually use the stuff it's not a lot.

asdff12 days ago
This threw me into a rabbit hole for a bit. Apparently there is good evidence that a lot of historical earthquakes in california were due in part at least to the oil industry, which early on would not replace pumped out oil with water.

Now a days they claim they replace the oil with water and all is well. However, as anyone who has owned an ancient used car and has switched from conventional to synthetic motor oil would tell you, there's no way that would work. The assumption is that these voids the oil are in are these hermetically sealed vaults such that one can simply pump in more volume of liquid and balance out pressures. That seems like a big assumption to me. Water is obviously not nearly so viscous as crude oil. It will seep in situations where crude will not. It's probably leaking out like a sieve if its really choss all the way down in California. The oil as it is isn't even very well contained given how common tar seeps are.

Agriculture probably also plays a role. Central valley has sunken what is it 20-25 feet now from historic ground levels? Same issue as a void generated by an atomic test or oil extraction, one would imagine. Mining probably also plays a decent role. Really anything involving removal or non like for like replacement of structural substrate from the ground is probably liable to be associated with seismic activity.

Kind of depressing a realization if this is the case, like we've screwed ourselves with not just the air but the ground we stand on too. You can't really get that stability back without all this new potential energy leaving the system in the form of stuff falling down and new quakes and plates breaking loose and budging a bit more.

paimapi12 days ago
>like we've screwed ourselves with not just the air but the ground we stand on too

I'm reminded of something Margaret Atwood once said which boiled down to the fact that there is no starting civilization over, ever again, if we fall back into the Dark Ages. the metals for copper tools and iron-making are in forms that require a lot of technology to even re-smelt, and all the easily accessible mines that don't require heavy machinery and engineering are long mined out

we either get it right this time around or it's over for us

antonvs12 days ago
> Mining probably also plays a decent role.

In the Johannesburg area in South Africa, gold mining has produced up to half of all gold ever extracted in the world, with mines reaching depths of 4000m.

This has resulted in frequent seismic events, in the 2.0 to 3.0 range on the Richter scale, occurring on a daily or weekly basis, more occasionally reaching 5.0. This started around 1906 and still continues today. See:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167477551...

nvader12 days ago
I wonder if there's an argument to be made that these little earthquakes help release stored potential energy in the crust, preventing it from building into a more severe and dangerous event?
Melatonic12 days ago
What kind of earthquakes in California ?
pjc5012 days ago
When gas extraction caused earthquakes in Groenignen, this site was very clear on prioritizing fossil fuel extraction over a few small tremors.
asdff12 days ago
What's a little permanent undermining of unknown scope across wide swaths of developed area if it means a decade or two of profitability over the working life of the well? I mean have you even considered the shareholders interests?
loeg12 days ago
It's simple, really. Fracking has offsetting pro-social benefits in a way that NK possessing nuclear weapons does not.
thrance12 days ago
As someone that has no stakes in the oil industry, I would describe fracking as deeply anti-social.

NK possessing nukes is the reason there hasn't been a war in the region for so long. Which gives a "good" model for Iran to follow. I'm not happy that NK has nukes, or that Iran is trying to get them, but you have to admit that while the US exists as it is, they are the only way for a nation to protect itself from constant wars and invasions. I would be willing to bet that Iran getting nukes would paradoxically make the Middle East much safer: the US and their allies would be forced to leave it alone, which in turn would shrink the anti-US sentiment in the long term, which would cut into the ranks of terrorist cells, etc.

lazide12 days ago
NK nuclear testing has stopped them from being on the active ‘shit list’ like Iran for… decades? Or at least stopped them from being bombed.

I’m sure they’d disagree.

antonvs12 days ago
“Pro-social” is a strange way to describe something that’s actively contributing to the death of our civilization.
FireHorseAutumn12 days ago
It's worse than people think. The fact that North Korea-traditionally nuttier than all the Middle Eastern governments combined-gets mean Hollywood movies made about them while Saddam, Gaddafi, and Assad got regime changed sent a certain kind of message, you know? Not to mention, the Iranians, Syrians, Pakistanis, et all could have never got off the ground without massive North Korean help.

I'm saying this as someone who is on the whole deeply cynical about Boomer pearl clutching when it comes to atomic proliferation.

floralhangnail12 days ago
Oklahoma hasn't threatened to nuke anyone.....yet.
mathgeek12 days ago
Technically, Oklahoma is on the short list of locations that _have_ detonated a nuclear bomb on their enemies in wartime.
NikolaNovak12 days ago
(Not to be contrarian, but I rather thought usa has recently and repeatedly threatened to bomb and nuke countries into stone age... And in fact went significant way through that effort over last few months, to the tune of some $40bil or so, for no clear, consistent, rational, elucidated reason whatsoever. And of course, rather famously, is the only country that actually deployed nuclear weapons against other people).

I don't necessarily disagree with your underlying point mind you, but USA isn't what it used to be internationally, if it ever truly was. "Oklahoma / USA are peaceful, predictable. rational political entities" is a rather laughable point to try to make today :-/

killingtime7412 days ago
Isn't the US literally the only country to ever use a nuke against humans?
tecleandor12 days ago
Not Oklahoma but Trump has made nuclear threats from Maryland this summer...
throe84494912 days ago
Oklahoma is part of US, and there were several threats! Just a few months ago against Iran!
FireHorseAutumn12 days ago
Fracking doesn't result in potential nuclear fallout or the likes of Seoul or Tokyo being held hostage.
horsawlarway12 days ago
Sure - but the content and intent of the article is clearly about understanding the geographic conditions that lead to sustained seismic activity, when that's not what our models currently predict.

And it's hardly like we're "super concerned about the tests because of the test itself" here... given we've triggered nearly 1000 underground nuclear blasts in the US alone, across several states (at least 6).

So... yeah - a relatively unstable state gaining nuclear capabilities sucks, but the interesting part of the discussion in the article is why we're seeing activity years after the testing.

seinvak12 days ago
Well oil is definitely the reason countries like Iraq or Venezuela have been held hostage by America.
margalabargala12 days ago
Could this be considered a good thing?

The energy being released in these many tiny earthquakes was always going to exist in this location. Much better to release it slowly via thousands of tiny earthquakes than all at once. Better to have 10k magnitude 3 quakes than one magnitude 7.

sbuttgereit12 days ago
Geologic systems are more complex than this. Analyzing something like this as though it were a single system is wrought with the dangers of miscalculation.

You could locally release stresses on an incremental, short term basis this way in a local system, while at the same time increasing stresses on nearby systems which could fail even more spectacularly, especially if the increasing stresses are being moved from a less dangerous system to a more dangerous system.

I'm not suggesting the above is true in this case, but that you need to cast a pretty wide net with increasingly unknown (and perhaps unknowable) variables as you start to inject real changes into a local system and try to predict what those changes will actually do.

booi12 days ago
It's logarithmic so you'd need more like 30,000 magnitude 3 earthquakes to equal the energy of a magnitude 7. I don't think it's clear this is better. You can also make the argument that this may trigger the large earthquake that might not have happened for a long time.
sokoloff12 days ago
Energy is logarithmic with magnitude, but if the underlying model is analogous to springs being loaded and suddenly released, that model is quadratic in energy with distance.

The article cites 1399 detectable follow-on earthquakes. If each of them represented a movement of earth an equal distance as compared to a single event, each of those movements would be 1/1399th in scale and therefore ~5x10^-7 in energy per event. (One two-millionth.)

I think that's clearly better.

MBCook12 days ago
So even if this does release pressure with no negative side effects anywhere it isn’t actually useful for preventing “the big one”.
andy_ppp12 days ago
It can go either way, you might get a relief of pressure or you might get an increased destabilisation in the region.
skeptic_ai12 days ago
There isA study about fire fighting. If you shit down every fire quickly then eventually you’ll have a major black swan. If you let fires burn a bit more then you’ll avoid black swan effect that burns down everything
jjk16612 days ago
If you have an anvil hanging over your head, the potential energy that would kill you already exists. Slowly lowering the anvil makes sense. Damaging the rope holding the anvil doesn't.
ryanisnan12 days ago
I don’t think this is a good analogy.
moffkalast12 days ago
I think this is analogus to lowering it bit by bit in small but manageable head bonks.
xvedejas12 days ago
At least naturally, faults release almost all their energy in the few largest events. You never see enough small earthquakes that you would "release slowly" that amount of energy. It would really need to be several orders of magnitude of more energy being released slowly.
elictronic12 days ago
This article does a very poor job of differentiating earthquakes people feel and care about versus magnitude 2 quakes that are like your neighbor dropping a book upstairs.
RobotToaster12 days ago
Makes me think of the fact that the UK officially has over 300 earthquakes per year, but any you would actually feel are unheard of.
dopa4236512 days ago
There're like 20 magnitude 4 earthquakes worldwide every day too. Even those are rarely noteworthy.
qingcharles12 days ago
Huh. I never looked this stat up, but I assumed it was close to zero. The one time I had the house rattled in England with a 4.0 was a big surprise.
ortusdux13 days ago
How long until someone attempts to diffuse a pent up fault line via nuclear geoengineering?
rtkwe12 days ago
The issue on real faults is they span massive areas. The San Andreas fault system spans basically the entire coast of California.

Even if we could identify the right points there's a big liability shift both legal and political between doing nothing and intentionally setting off an earthquake that would be hard to predict the size of. It's part of why ~~proscribed~~ prescribed burns fell out of favor, it's way easier to do nothing and blame nature than defending damage caused by intentional acts. It gets into messy areas where it's hard to convince people that the damage was lesser than it otherwise would have been in the future.

gmac12 days ago
Typo: prescribed burns.

One of the most ridiculous pairs of approximate homophones in the English language.

Proscribed = forbidden. Prescribed = recommended/required.

WarmWash12 days ago
>It gets into messy areas where it's hard to convince people that the damage was lesser than it otherwise would have been in the future.

Morbidly adjacent, the US is still getting dragged over the coals for using nukes on Japan rather than a ground invasion.

christina9712 days ago
If they can’t build high speed rail along the corridor then surely they cannot geo engineer it either!
asdfman12312 days ago
So possible in less regulated countries but not in the US. Here I think it would be far too much of a legal liability.
slater12 days ago
ortusdux12 days ago
The soviets reportedly used nukes to cap uncontrolled leaking oil wells - https://www.npr.org/2010/06/04/127473704/stopping-a-spill-th...
fragmede12 days ago
Such ambition! Hey, there's a mountain in the way. Let's blow it up! The audacity to reshape the world in such a way that it suits ourselves has been lost. Why shouldn't we green the Sahara? Why can't we make a new continent?
fred_is_fred10 days ago
This was the plot of a 1980s James Bond movie - A View to a Kill https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090264/
onion2k12 days ago
It's been theorized and allegedly attempted - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_weapon
mc3212 days ago
Sounds like a plot for a Superhero movie ;)
ortusdux12 days ago
More like a bond villain plot. Nefarious under the guise of altruism. And a volcano lair.
diabeetusman12 days ago
Not exactly a superhero movie, but The Core (2003) is kinda related
dzink12 days ago
Reminds me of a display at Chabot in the bay area. A bubbling volcano covered by a stable mass stays bubbling underneath, but shaking up the mass gives little bubbles a bath up and they break way for the big bubbles leading to a volcanic eruption. If you fragment a he soil at some point in the mantle of earth and there is pressure anywhere below, you could get yourself a new volcano.

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