35 points•el_duderino•about 4 hours ago•45 comments•

45 comments

bunderbunderabout 1 hour ago
Oracle's recent force majeure invocation shines a spotlight on what seems to be an endemic problem: datacenter builders have been signing commitments to bring a certain amount of capacity online by a certain date, without first conducting sufficient due diligence about whether they would be able to secure all the resources needed to meet those commitments.

This means they are now caught in a mad scramble to source all sorts of stuff, including RAM, potentially as a matter of life and death.

What's less clear to me, though, is whether datacenter builders will be able to make good on these purchase agreements. It seems these projects have every opportunity to fail, and the path to success keeps getting narrower. What are the odds that chip manufacturers ultimately get caught holding a bag of chips that nobody can buy in one hand, and a bag of IOUs from bankrupt customers in the other?

LetsGetTechniclabout 1 hour ago
Yeah there was just a story about how there are hundreds of billions of dollars in "non-cancellable" debt obligations to build AI data centers. But they're building far beyond current demand, I feel like the collapse is inevitable.
NooneAtAll3about 1 hour ago
sure, collapse is inevitable, alright

how does one prepare for the moment it actually happens? what would it look like?

what were the immediate consequences of dotcom for the normal folk?

DrBazzaabout 1 hour ago
There are signs that we are, and are not, in an AI bubble.

Compared to the dotcom boom, firms are well positioned in terms of capital - they have revenue and profits.

However, there's still the absurd speculative valuations, risk, and high expenditure (on said data centres). Also, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, personal opinion - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv8e30enrkxyo

konaraddiabout 4 hours ago
mmmBaconabout 1 hour ago
Remember when software was eating the world? The gravy train ran out on commodity hardware and now we are paying the price for almost 3 decades of underinvestment.
Magi604about 1 hour ago
Was at the computer store yesterday and the RAM I bought for $130 last year is now over $800.
tuvixabout 1 hour ago
Yeah I checked on DDR4 prices too recently and it made me pretty sad. Glad I upgraded to 64 GB in 2023 though. Another homelab dream deferred
sharts37 minutes ago
Executives expecting $$ as usual

Read the full thread on Hacker News →

Related stories