The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982 as emergency oil exchanges and the prolonged Hormuz disruption erode America’s supply buffer.

181 points•thelastgallon•2 days ago•231 comments•

231 comments

brightball2 days ago
Chart of strategic reserve levels since 1982, for context

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/41674/us-strategic-petroleum...

mahboi2 days ago
Beware the Y axis not starting at 0. But it's still an insane drop.

  Highcharts.charts.forEach(chart => { if (chart) chart.yAxis.forEach(axis => axis.update({ min: 0 })); });
hedora2 days ago
Though note that, for some reason, the last 250M barrels are not physically extractable from the SPR, and the red line has dropped to 284M.
leereeves1 day ago
It's a big drop, but most of it happened in 2021-2023, when reserves fell by roughly 300K from 650K to 350K. The SPR only recovered a little bit before the recent 130K drop from 415K to 285K.

What was the SPR being used for a few years ago?

Edit: Whoever downvoted, would you be willing to explain why?

tehjoker2 days ago
I heard John Mearshimer say on a podcast that ~230k barrels, you can't go lower without damaging the caverns the oil is stored in, so we're pretty close to it being over.
pas1 day ago
every time oil is removed the walls are damaged (because they pump in water to force out the oil, which dissolves more of the walls)

https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-the-strategic-pet...

tmellon22 days ago
We can simply get rid of most oil - Just ONE square mile of batteries and a TOTAL of 100 x 100 square miles of Solar can power the entire USA 24/7.

It is because of world wide adoption of EVs that the fossil fuel demand has reduced and stabilized gas prices in the US.

See : https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/batteries-have-unlo...

pstuart2 days ago
It looks like it started to plummet in April 2022, which was on Biden's watch (disclaimer: I voted for him). It apparently was in response to supply chain shocks spiking oil prices due to the start of the war in Ukraine.

Having the AI summarize the pros and cons of that action has valid points on both sides. But in his defense, that particular war was not of our doing, unlike the current war with Iran which was initiated impulsively.

jjk1662 days ago
Stabilizing ourselves and our allies when an enemy attacks and disrupts petroleum supplies is why we have a strategic petroleum reserve.

It's just incredibly dumb to start a war that will tank global petroleum supply chains before stocking back up.

Gigachad2 days ago
Trump spoke about this publicly, promising he would "fill the reserves right up to the top", then when in power, didn't do that but instead started a war with Iran while the reserves were still low.

It's mind boggling how stupid it all is.

brightball1 day ago
It also stabilized following the elections that year.
partiallypro2 days ago
> that particular war was not of our doing

Well... arguably it is partially our doing. Not for the reason's Tucker Carlson & Russia say, but that Obama and later Biden totally sat on their laurels after the Crimean invasion, totally paralyzed by fear of escalation and political fallout.

fsckboy2 days ago
>It looks like it started to plummet in April 2022, which was on Biden's watch. It apparently was in response to supply chain shocks spiking oil prices due to the start of the war in Ukraine.

it wasn't simply supply chain shocks, it was supply chain shocks in a time of rampant inflation caused by the endless stimulus checks and programs after Covid.

Supply chain shocks cause "legitimate" price increases, it's not "too many dollars chasing too few goods", rather the value of each dollar simply doesn't stretch as far any more, and while trying to hold the line on prices is a fool's errand, trying to make that case to the public in a time of rampant inflation is not going to succeed either

Avicebron2 days ago
Yikes.
King-Aaron2 days ago
That is just mind boggling.
bix62 days ago
So seriously, what is the administrations intention here? They’ve used all the missiles and drained all the gas. Are they trying to get the U.S. invaded?
King-Aaron2 days ago
Project 2025 fairly implicitly stated that the idea was to scuttle trust in the US government so badly that there would be a case for private equity to swoop in and save the day. That's what you're seeing.
culi1 day ago
Heritage Foundation has long advocated for emptying the reserves. They wrote Project 2025 but I'm not sure it was an explicit goal in the actual blueprint we got to see
Krasnol2 days ago
So how exactly are they supposed to swoop in? With what?
leereeves1 day ago
> Project 2025 fairly implicitly stated that the idea was to scuttle trust in the US government so badly that there would be a case for private equity to swoop in and save the day. That's what you're seeing.

Could you quote the exact text you're interpreting here?

(Not the whole Project 2025 text; the specific sentence(s) that imply that.)

parineum2 days ago
Project 2025 can be anything you want it to be.
phendrenad22 days ago
I dunno, this seems like confirmation bias.
toomuchtodo2 days ago
Keep fuel prices low enough using the SPR to try to not lose at midterms. They don’t care what happens after, just as they don’t care about their constituents losing their Medicaid.

The cost of putting unsophisticated grifters in the ultimate position of power.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(Green New Deal via incompetence)

bawolff2 days ago
If you want to be unreasonably sympathetic to the trump admin, they could be assuming that iran et al are trying to hold out until the election on the belief that that might change something (see also the timing of houthi offensive and attacks on saudi arabia), and that if trump get over the hump of the election, iran no longer has a way to affect anything short term and will throw in the towel as they lack the ability to hold out long term.

Personally i think trump does not have a plan, but if you tried to sanewash it, i think that is the best rationale i've been able to find.

mahboi2 days ago
Shouldn't they at least care about the presidential election 2 years after that?
kraken_cult2 days ago
They aren't winning the midterms with this. Hopefully the grifter hopefuls will take the lesson to heart.
idiotsecant2 days ago
SPR cannot meaningfully lower prices at the pump. It's simply not big enough. The only thing that does that is an end to the war.
partiallypro2 days ago
It's actually shocking that so many comments don't know that the biggest draw -by far- happened under the Biden administration largely as a result of the Ukrainian War. In 2020 when the SPR wasn't full and oil was literally negative, Congress blocked the administration from buying oil to fill it. Instead they used the SPR for short term storage for oil companies (which was not the administration's original proposal.)

I get the Iran war part (though the bigger issue there is middle distillerates rather then crude atm), but people were screaming about the SPR drawdown, and lack of buying for 4 years before Trump ever got back into office; and it fell completely on deaf ears.

edg50002 days ago
> In 2020 when the SPR wasn't full and oil was literally negative, Congress blocked the administration from buying oil to fill it

Why???

cosmicgadget1 day ago
> lack of buying for 4 years before Trump ever got back into office; and it fell completely on deaf ears.

So Jan 2021-Feb 2022 Biden didn't top up the SPR, something that definitely makes sense given the fiscal situation.

From Feb 2022 onwards, oil prices spiked because Russia invaded Ukraine. People started putting stupid "I did this" stickers on gas pumps and Biden drew from the SPR when it was nowhere near empty.

Trump doesn't refill it, with both houses of Congress, then starts a war with a nation who every military analyst knows could close a huge oil passageway.

plorkyeran2 days ago
Biden was not the president in 2020.
IAmBroom1 day ago
You've really goofed your dates up.

Pretty much everything you've said is true, but it happened in 2022. Biden wasn't even POTUS in 2020.

treis2 days ago
Most of the draw down was after Russia invaded Ukraine. This drawdown is a swap of 1 barrel now for 1.25 barrels later. So the intention is to keep prices down now and get more oil back later for "free".
Paradigma111 day ago
How is that intention going to stop the war with Iran and open the strait of Hormuz?
acaloiar1 day ago
If you retain any hope of the cessation of hostilities in the US's war with Iran causing a sudden and large dip in fuel prices, just remember that these stocks need to be rebuilt when all is said and done. And the US isn't the only country with rapidly depleting stocks requiring a post-war rebuild. Refining capacity aside -- there's a long road ahead for high prices.

Strategic petroleum reserves work best when there's strategy behind that which depletes them. It's difficult to see the US's strategy behind exposing itself in this way.

culi1 day ago
The Heritage Foundation (who made Project 2025) has long advocated for completely emptying the reserves.

Oil barrens will now yield even more political leverage not just over trump but also his successors

thelastgallon2 days ago
Global oil prices haven't skyrocketed so far thanks to China inverting the OPEC strategy of keeping prices up by destroying supply.

China stopped/reduced buying, used their large reserves, EVs and now accelerating EV trucks. And also coal to liquids.

Eventually, China may have to start buying and thats when the fun begins.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/business/energy-environme...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinas-Renewable-Boom-Masks...

China is now the world’s great oil power. Forget OPEC. The Chinese Communist Party calls the shots. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158

tharmas2 days ago
Essentially the Iran war is to control (i.e. reduce) oil going to China. As long as the straight of hormuz being closed restricts oil being sold/sent to China, tRump doesn't give a damn about other shortages as a result of the closure such as fertilizer which will see food skyrocket in price and many people starve.
ZeroGravitas1 day ago
You seem to basically understand that Trump is a chaotic fool yet you've still bought into the 4D chess explanation for this war.

Ignoring the reality that he let himself be talked into the Iran war by Israel, over strong US military objections. And suggesting instead he's secretly starting a war with China by cutting off oil to the entire far east.

A move which has only strengthened Chinas power in the region.

It's recursively stupid all the way down.

pstuart2 days ago
The Iran War was predicated on a manufactured threat of them getting nuclear weapons. That's been the line for some time.

All reports about the initiation of the war was that Bibi wanted it and manipulated Trump to join in (against the advice of all of those around him warning that the very problem we have now would in fact occur).

csomar1 day ago
They would have recharged the reserves if that was really the reason and they would have readied themselves to the upcoming closure. They didn't expect the strait to be closed and got caught with their pants way down. Using the SPR is just another sign of how incompetent and out of options they are. It was already on a low level when the war started due to the previous withdrawals from the Russian war.
seizethecheese2 days ago
I was following until “China is now the world’s great oil power.” China imports a massive amount of oil and it’s at an all time high.
thelastgallon2 days ago
Thats the Economist's title on the article.
culi1 day ago
It's worth pointing out that these are stored across ~60 salt caverns that were built to do a max of 5 drawdowns. All of them are now at about 9 drawdowns and there's every drawdown introduces serious structural integrity issues. We will never be able to completely empty them but the actual floor is debated.

The previous head of the reserves said we "couldn't realistically go below 300m". The Dept. of Energy requires at least 250m in the reserves for emergencies. Some other have estimated we could go as low as 70m.

It's entirely possible that we've already just about reached the minimum.

The very lowest layer of oil also has more sediment mixing issues and requires more processing to be useful.

Read the full thread on Hacker News →

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