Many California growers can’t find buyers as the industry produces more wine grapes than the market wants. Wine consumption is declining globally as people drink less.

387 points•randycupertino•2 days ago•969 comments•

969 comments

mamonster2 days ago
Alcohol is just in a structural decline. From my experiences in Switzerland:

1. 10-15 years ago it was expected you would have 1-2 glasses of wine at lunch as a front office guy / banker while talking shop. Now you will get a trip to HR unless meeting a client or in a place that still allows it. I imagine similar things in other areas. I still see construction workers drinking a can at 6:30pm however.

2. For good reason, "we were both drunk and X happened" doesn't work as an explanation anymore. Turns out that was a big a part of it.

The only real place people are still "expected" to drink is the army (cos there is nothing else to do) or meeting some boomer client. Younger people just do other drugs/stimulants.

vjk8002 days ago
Same observation from Finland. Additionally, being even slightly drunk in front of children has become very no-no. I recently had a small gathering of other families with children at my home and I made the mistake of offering them some beers. Everyone declined and the looks I got were the same as if I had offered them crack cocaine.

I don't think it's all good, though, since a lot of social events that were previously facilitated by alcohol just disappear. Like who the fuck actually enjoys acquantainces' children's birthdays without a beer or two? Turns out people suck at socialising without alcohol, and if alcohol disappears, people just stay at home and play video games or something.

darkwater2 days ago
This is going to sound like I'm over generalizing and maybe even a bit... racist? and I already apologize for it, it's not my intention. I hope I can pass the actual message I'm trying to pass. So, let's go.

Doesn't Finland, like the other Nordic countries, have a long history of alcohol abuse and pushing against it (like, with draconian prices)? Isn't maybe just that policy "winning"? Also, couldn't this be yet another case where the Nordic are seen as "one step beyond" the rest like it was the case when fully digitalizing schools, only then to backpedal realizing it's not all so good and there are drawbacks that were not considered?

I say this to connect with the second part of your post, to which I fully agree: alcohol is not generally good for health and it can be abused but also small quantities here and there won't probably hurt you in a serious way and will give some social benefits like the ones you mentioned. (and the same applied to other light drugs as well!)

bko1 day ago
In the US the reverse happened. Although people drink less, you do get offered alcohol everywhere. I don't remember it being present at places like zoos, kids indoor playgrounds, state fairs, etc. I was even at a birthday at a public park at 10am Sunday morning and saw some White Claws being passed around.

People drink less but there is less stigma around alcohol and obvious other once illegal drugs.

boelboel1 day ago
Genuinely feels like we're optimising for a less human way to interact with each other in pursuit of some nicer statistics (hooray people live two tenths of a year longer). Why even have children if everything surrounding them has to be miserable these days.
HPsquared1 day ago
I do have a feeling that the social structures, and perhaps even biology, have evolved over centuries with alcohol present to grease the wheels. It can allow a higher baseline of introversion / neuroticism (which facilitates higher performance in some areas but worse socialising), with the ability to drink to boost the social aspect when needed. Chesterton's beer, in other words.
KoolKat231 day ago
This is sad to hear.

On the whole I think it's a terrible thing that people have started taking themselves too seriously.

bko1 day ago
HR ruined everything didn't they?

I heard a comedian make the point that HR only began to exist once women became more prevalent in the workforce. And at that point you do need much more oversight. And having women in the workforce is positive since they're ~50% of the population and offer distinct experiences.

But I wonder the unseen downsides of having HR so powerful in an organization. From useless screening of candidates, to overly corrective actions by everyone terrified HR will essentially fire them. Maybe it would be better to have 1-2 glasses of wine during lunch occasionally. They're extra-judicial, easily the most powerful group in an organization with little oversight.

furyg31 day ago
My guess is that you're in the US. Here in the Netherlands, while there's plenty to criticize or laugh about, HR is also responsible for pensions, benefits, workplace safety, reintegration from sickness, ensuring that staff is well trained for their role, etc.

At my org they also organize the Thursday evening drinks session :)

laughing_man1 day ago
HR is a powerful organization for a reason. Companies everywhere operate in a legal environment, and 90% of what HR does is keep the company from getting sued.
onion2k1 day ago
The only problems with that reasoning is that women have been in the workplace for hundreds of years (domestic service, textiles, etc), and human resources started appearing in about 1900, approximately 50 years before mixed workplaces were common.
pjc501 day ago
No you can't just give people free rein to sexually harass the female staff.
ethbr11 day ago
I'd be very surprised if a full review didn't reveal that early HR more often existed to protect high position males against females in the workplace.

Behaviors and cultural norms don't change overnight, and HR is ultimately subordinate to leadership, especially in private companies with partnership structures, etc.

Modern HR feels like a better balance, with the caveat that it will usually protect the company from any employee.

socalgal22 days ago
According to the book "Drunk", the reason you drink with people is it's more likely their true self comes out and you can more easily find out if they are trustworthy and worth doing business with. Not saying that therefore you should drink, nor do I know if it can actually be backed up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drunk_(book)

podocarp2 days ago
Lol I would love to see how he argues that alcohol increases creativity. This is one of those things that sound plausible but very debatable if true or not.
Viliam12341 day ago
I suspect that alcohol was a technology invented to protect the society from psychopaths. The psychopaths do not have instinctive empathy, but they can pretend. Alcohol ruins their ability to keep control, so when they get drunk, they will say or do something crazy that you will remember the next day.

It would make sense that when psychopaths get the power, they will eliminate the detectors.

SecretDreams1 day ago
While I don't agree or disagree, we had a rule with my grad school colleagues and prof that we couldn't have certain discussions if four people had a pint in hand and the fifth was there drinking water, taking notes lol.
> the reason you drink with people is it's more likely their true self comes out and you can more easily find out if they are trustworthy and worth doing business with.

This doesn't work when you're a person being encouraged to drink in an asymmetric power dynamic and it turns out the people you're drinking with are monsters. You end up in a tragic story like what happened in the Dartmouth Predator Professor Gang and perhaps the recent Cornell case as well.

roncesvalles1 day ago
College students have basically stopped drinking. I had a recent Berkeley college grad tell me no one drinks at Berkeley anymore because they're afraid it will shrink their brain. Things are just so competitive that having fun in college is a complete afterthought. It's constantly chasing grades, internships, side projects, networking, job interviews etc.

Alcohol is going the way of cigarettes.

ifwinterco1 day ago
Not in the UK from what I can see, there's stories about it in the news but try actually going to hackney on a saturday - it's full of 22 year olds drinking (and also often smashing loads of bag...).

Maybe that's not a representative sample but young people still want to socialise and at that age you can get away with it so why not.

Having said that, the UK is absolutely a nation of pissheads, the US has always has that puritanical streak

OkayPhysicist1 day ago
There's a pretty strong observation bias when it comes to college drinking. The social gatherings of basically anybody who does drink ends up involving drinking, which pushes out the non-drinkers, until you end up with two completely distinct social circles. To add to the effect, alcohol is wildly useful in socializing with strangers, so the non-drinkers know far fewer people.

Thus, if you ask someone who does drink they'll probably say "everybody drinks, except for a few people", and if you ask someone who doesn't, they'll assume most people don't, except for the minority of people getting loudly drunk in public. That was true even where I was at school, where polling found that 70% of the student body was drinking on the weekends.

lab141 day ago
BS. They just replaced alcohol with weed and a bit of amphetamines.
mancerayder1 day ago
How much of this is due to famous podcasters? There's the Huberman obsession with alcohol being poisonous, the looksmaxxing, and then you can argue, good science that shows it's bad.

It's influenced me - I was drinking probably 2-3 drinks every night for decades, and lately I've cut down by 60-80 percent weekly. That's still poisonous though, if you ask the GenZ social media world.

OkayPhysicist1 day ago
I'm pretty sure the causality is backwards. People aren't drinking less because they hear people saying it's poison, people are more willing to tolerate people calling it poison because they're drinking less. People have preached about the evils of drinking to excess as far back as we have records of people discussing stuff. It just got ignored, because it's a crucial social lubricant, and thus everybody imbibes anyway. With the rise of addictive social media and gaming, we've seen a decrease in socialization in meatspace, and that's where people drink. If you're missing out on the positive aspects of alcohol anyway, then it's a lot easier to listen to people talking about the negative aspects. And then those voices get amplified to justify not doing the thing you weren't doing anyway.
gaddersabout 20 hours ago
Alcohol is bad for you, but it's only "red meat" bad, not "smoking cigarettes" bad.

However, you have to weigh that cancer risk against the benefits of alcohol. Plenty of people wouldn't exist if their parents had never drunk.

pwthornton1 day ago
It's probably a combo of the legit science that there really is no safe/good level of drinking from a health perspective (and previous studies saying otherwise are bunk), and all the podcasters/influencers extolling the virtues of not drinking.

Why We Sleep really impacted my view on drinking. It really does mess with your sleep, so I keep my drinking to occasional and on the light side.

Wearables also play a role in this. I had two beers between like 5:30-7:00 on Saturday and my sleep data was messed up. We are talking two 5.5% beers at dinner on a 220 lb man.

It's much harder to ignore the fact that alcohol has all these negative effects.

Still, I think drinking occasionally while socializing is a good thing, and that people becoming hermits is a huge negative.

alkonaut1 day ago
It's a shrinking market, but it surely doesn't help that people are simply boycotting US goods.

For example: Swedish sales for US wine was down around 20% in 2025. The overall decline was about 10%. In a shrinking market, you don't want to also have a shrinking market share.

I'm sure the figures are similar in other countries - and this year it's going to be very different in Canada as well. I imagine Canada was always a big importer of US wine seeing as it's close by and they don't have much domestic production.

Seeing many people comment that they drink less; I'm happy to report I still try to drink as often as I can (Which is still not as often as I want).

werdnapk1 day ago
Canada actually has quite a lot of domestic production across the country. BC and Ontario are the main producers and have many wineries.
giarc1 day ago
Yes, but many of those wineries import their grapes from California (or other places). My wife and I participate in this boycott and were drinking a sparkling white from Mission Hill Winery which is one of the biggest BC wineries. We noticed the label said something like "Produced in Canada" and then listed grapes imported from California.

Wines that are produced from 100% BC grapes are labelled "BC VQA" and only 19% of the wines in BC are BC VQA.

dukeyukeyabout 17 hours ago
I have a bottle of Niagara icewine downstairs I'm very much looking forward to!
misiti37801 day ago
The wine from Canada is not good, unless you like dessert wine/icewine. Maybe there are some exceptions for riesling but it's too cold to grow nice vines there.
juujian1 day ago
Even Ontarians don't speak kindly about wine from Ontario lol
stronglikedan1 day ago
> but it surely doesn't help that people are simply boycotting US goods.

Seems like that would be such a negligible number that, while it doesn't help, it doesn't hurt either. It's just statistically irrelevant when it comes to a global market like wine.

alberto4671 day ago
Exactly. Nobody was buying US wine, even the experienced winos and wine distributors for fancy dining that i've met here in Italy probably have never drunk US wine. Maybe new zeland, australia, south america, but i've never heard of somebody drinking an US wine.

And they weren't boycotting it, it's just not a good enough deal to buy from our prospective, even when people are looking to spend good money, there is better stuff to buy from elsewhere.

MadrasThorn1 day ago
More vineyards around the world are being built and the field is getting more crowded amid a shrinking market.
carefree-bob1 day ago
I think that trying to explain the reduced sales of California grape growers in terms of an international boycott of US products seems like highly motivated reasoning, not factual reasoning.

US exports have been growing every year since the pandemic low of 2020

US Exports (in billions of $)

   2025 $3,429.92
   2024 $3,232.52
   2023 $3,092.54
   2022 $3,058.45
   2021 $2,584.07
   2020 $2,172.85
   2019 $2,554.09
   2018 $2,544.58
We obviously do not have full data for 2026, but the first half is higher than the same time in 2025. But this is really driven by economic activity, so if there is a global recession, you can expect fewer people to buy US goods, just as you can expect Americans to buy fewer foreign goods. The 2020 low was not because of a boycott, but a general economic decline, and as far as I am aware, no boycott of US goods has ever been detected in the trade data, it's always been a media affair or hyperlocalized (e.g. some people boycotting Apple or Windows or Google seem to be the most common media stories).

And I think this is a pretty general situation, e.g. consumer boycotts rarely show up in trade data - to hit trade data you need government sanctions, nothing else moves the needle.

rickdeckard1 day ago
When looking at the actual wine export-volume as factual reasoning [0], it draws a different picture and shows a drop of almost 50% from 2020 to 2025.

Export volume (millions of gallons):

  2025: 53.4
  2024: 66.9
  2023: 57.6
  2022: 77.3
  2021: 89.4
  2020: 99.1
Noted elsewhere, Canada accounts for more than a third of US wine exports [1], so the trade-war with Canada in 2026 surely wasn't helpful either to keep export-volume at 2025-levels...

[0] Association of California wineries: https://wineinstitute.org/our-industry/statistics/us-wine-ex...

[1] https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-08-26/california...

toyg1 day ago
Apart from the inflation mentioned above, there are a multitude of factors at play that cannot be determined by just looking at aggregated numbers. The price of some goods, for example, has skyrocketed due to general scarcity (electronics, oil...). Fx got worse for the dollar vs other currencies. And are numbers only for goods, or do they include services?

It is definitely a reality that certain goods have seen localized boycotts, like alcohol in Canada, and some services have had to change (data sovereignty in Europe got a lot of traction).

khriss1 day ago
I think comparing by tonnage would be more apt than comparing dollar figures which are subject to a lot of external factors, including currency exchange rates and inflation.
wasabi9910111 day ago
I don't find your general data on US exports very convincing for this case.

Is there any way to separate US exports of consumer products (which would be affected by consumer boycotts) vs. US exports for industrial products or capital goods (which I wouldn't expect to be affected by these boycotts)?

It is entirely possible that specific consumer-focused industries (wine, tourism, etc.) are being strongly affected by international boycotts and having decreasing exports, even while industry/capital-focused exports (petroleum, plastics, weapons, medical equipment, telecom equipment, data centre electronics, etc.) are increasing at a faster rate which would hide the consumer boycott effect in total export $.

bregma1 day ago
This is an incredibly disingenuous and specious argument.

The discussion is about US wine production and consumption. You present the aggregate total vale of all US exports in US dollars to 6 significant digits. Does the variance of the volume of wine exports in litres even show up in those 6 signifcant digits?

Consider: (1) is six significant digits of precision justified, or is it insignificant accurancy? (2) Do those aggregate numbers take into account inflation? (3) Do those aggregate numbers take into account the (not insignificant) devaluation of the US dollar? (4) Do those aggregate numbers include both goods and services?

No, if you were to make an honest argument by quoting US exports, you need to limit it to the volume of US wine exports in litres. Misdirection can be a great tool of propaganda but is not a useful contribution to interesting intellectual discourse.

5ersi2 days ago
Long time casual wine drinker (and occasional beer), I find myself drinking less and less. Two reasons: first drinking a glass of average wine for the sake of having a drink makes no sense anymore. I prefer to have a drink more seldom but pick a better wine, that I actually enjoy. Second, as I get older I see that even a modest amount of alcohol has negative effect on me: during the day I get groggy, during the night my sleep is worse (I know, counterfactual, but so it is).
mkesper2 days ago
It's long known that drinking alcohol disturbs your sleep. You're getting slumbery and probably will fall asleep easily but the sleep will not be as wholesome.
aitchnyu2 days ago
My sleep tracker registers terrible deep sleep and sometimes I jolk awake after the buzz wears off.
adastra221 day ago
Get yourself checked for sleep apnea.
seer2 days ago
I think different types of alcohol have quite a different effect on me now (40yo) - wine will get me mellow and sleepy, beer would get me to be more social, whiskey will make me more energetic / risk taking.

Knowing that I can tune my level of enjoyment of whatever is happening.

Though there is an old saying from where I grew up - alcohol is stealing happiness from tomorrow to have it today.

And that has always stuck with me - whenever I drink I get a bit happier that instant and feel worse more tired the next day.

And that is ok if I am going to a social event and I want to get the most out of it, and I know next day will be chill anyway - who’ll can make the “chill” time even more chill.

hyperbovine1 day ago
You're just describing normal aging though. People have been experiencing this (particularly #2) since time immemorial. The question is why young people are not arriving to fill the void left by you (and me), as they always have. I agree with other posters, it's some combination of economics, weed, and culture.
voidmain00011 day ago
I take your list of reasons and add empty calories to it. I’m training and want muscle mass, not a beer belly so no alcohol for me.
Jcampuzano21 day ago
Interestingly this was basically what started it for me. Empty calories and research showing it literally inhibits muscle gain irregardless of the caloric effect since your body basically switches to "get this shit the fuck out" before continuing to be normal.

Secondary benefit for me was all the other stuff. Now I find that the once or twice in the entire year where I might have one drink it only takes like one drink to already feel it.

akeck1 day ago
The impact on our sleep is one of the main reasons our having a beer or glass of wine with dinner trailed off. Sometimes now we go months in between any sort of alcohol.
cuttysnark1 day ago
It’s weed. A whole cohort of people and kids are no longer drinking alcohol (like they did) or never really started because THC and/or CBD is now legal in vapes, gummies, drinks.

I visited Charleston and was surprised they’ve only legalized THC insofar as THC drinks are available at bars. But a lot of the young people were drinking cans of it instead of spiked seltzer, which was the only alcohol anyone was holding. No beer, no wine.

Similarly: they all were smoking computers—not a single analog cigarette in sight. Tobacco farmers in shambles?

herval1 day ago
Tobacco has never been more lucrative. Between Zyn and vapes, they’re swimming in cash
ghtbircshotbeabout 14 hours ago
I'd be surprised if any one selling tobacco products were swimming in cash. Single use vapes are expensive compared to cost but there are tons of sellers. If you buy vape juice you can get something like the equivalent of 100 packs of cigarettes for $15. Vape shops jack up all the prices but there are 5 shops on every street and they always seem empty and I'm convinced they are mostly just laundering money.
stronglikedan1 day ago
> Zyn and vapes

Those don't contain tobacco, nor nicotine derived from tobacco. I'd be surprised if tobacco farming was still lucrative, except maybe the fine stuff for cigars, but that was always a relatively small market compared to cheap cig tobacco.

TheSkyHasEyes1 day ago
Agreed. Synthetic nicotine has been around for awhile as well, which is much cheaper than sourcing the old fashioned way.
It's also the economy. Everything is expensive. Young people are less successful than ever before (at no fault of their own). When it costs $10 a beer with tax and tip, most young people simply can't afford to do that with any regularity.

It's also also competition. In 1970, your option was to stay home and watch one of three TV channels and that's it. Now, your options are literally to watch any movie ever made, watch any TV show ever made, or play any game ever made... all connected with your friends online.

It is a part of it, but it's not just weed. I would argue the economy is the most impactful factor here.

jnaina2 days ago
I'm Gen X. I lived my best life in the 80s and 90s, socializing, partying (frat boy years included), with alcohol as the main social lubricant. After Covid, almost everyone in my circle stopped or cut back on going out to bars and drinking, me included. It wasn't the price of drinks. Something about the lockdowns simply rewired the social norms (and our brains).

I feel for the farmers. I still miss a nicely chilled Margaret River Sauvignon Blanc now and then.

bunderbunder2 days ago
Millennial here, and it was the same for me.

The thing is, over lockdown I stopped drinking socially. And then I realized I didn’t miss the feeling of intoxication. And then I realized my sleep got a whole lot better.

And then lockdown loosened, so some friends and I went out for drinks for old times’ sake, and I felt awful, both that evening and the next morning. My tolerance for alcohol is just gone, and I don’t have any particular desire to get it back.

globular-toast2 days ago
I had the same realisation but before COVID. I had a friend who didn't drink, but he was always the most fun person to be around. I realised you didn't need alcohol, or any drugs, to have a good time. Without alcohol I was funnier, had more and better sex, slept better, and had no hangover the next day. I never looked back really.

Nowadays I'm older and not looking for sex so don't take part in that scene. I would say a few years ago when I would go out there was still some peer pressure to drink and I was considered odd going for non-alcoholic options. But nowadays it's not weird at all and the alcohol-free options are much more numerous and varied. Lime and soda was my go to for years but now I'll partake of an alcohol-free beer or cider.

BoxOfRain1 day ago
I found the opposite effect from covid personally as a 'zillennial'. As soon as the lockdowns and 'rule of six' were over the first thing me and my friends did was rent a nice house in the middle of the Welsh countryside and have a massive multi-day party. We all felt that lockdowns had stolen what was left of our early 20s from us and wanted to make up for it!

I often wonder if there's a lot of national differences here, in the UK people for the most part wanted to reverse everything about the covid norms as quickly as possible after Partygate and all the political drama. People are still drinking less but it's because pints cost >£6 now in a lot of places, nothing to do with an outbreak of temperance.

ajsnigrutin1 day ago
> People are still drinking less but it's because pints cost >£6 now in a lot of places, nothing to do with an outbreak of temperance.

Yep, same over here in central europe/balkans.

Covid came, bars were closed, bars reopened with limited seating, prices went up, tourism restarted, our city center became a tourist trap, prices went up, and higher prices then radiated outside the tourist traps, and well... it doesn't add up anymore.

Sure, college students and highschoolers can buy cheap wine or booze and drink in parks, even in below freezing weather, but sitting in a bar has become very expensive.

kkotak2 days ago
As a fellow Gen Xer I identify with this. More and more of my friends drink less and less and when they do they prefer a cocktail instead. I think wine has lost the appeal it used to have in the early 2000s. The cost of a glass of wine in the restaurant doesn't help either. As an ex-avid wine drinker, I would be hard pressed to spend more than $30 of a bottle because of the diminishing difference in incremental quality after that price point.
boobsbr2 days ago
I just drink at home now. It's cheaper and I can find different beers I want to taste rather than the meager selection available at a pub.

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