64 comments
xnx3 days ago
Would it kill (har har?) to include a chart in a story? https://www.statista.com/statistics/191223/reported-murder-a...
~Half the murder rate now vs. 1990. Worrisome COVID murder increase is returning to average for the past 20 years.
erkt3 days ago
Failure to prosecute crime leads to crime stat drops.
JumpCrisscross3 days ago
You’re arguing people aren’t reporting homicides because they don’t think they will be prosecuted?
jdlshore3 days ago
Are you claiming that’s what happening, or just engaging in ominous speculation?
hn_throwaway_993 days ago
I think we know the answer to that one...
Besides, GP is flat out wrong - not prosecuting crime does not result in reduced crime stats. The crime decline is led be a relatively huge 15% reduction in homicides. Even if those homicides remain unsolved or are not prosecuted, they still end up in crime stats. And unlike other crimes where you may argue they go unreported, when someone ends up dead (by usually violent means in a homicide) it rarely goes unnoticed.
UncleMeat2 days ago
There are two major sources of crime stats: police data and a national survey that asks people whether they have recently been a victim of a crime. The latter is unaffected by prosecutorial discretion and it also shows declines.
iamnothere3 days ago
Cheap energy will do that, statistically. It won’t be cheap for much longer, so enjoy the reprieve.
maxerickson2 days ago
It's gonna get cheaper.
iamnothere2 days ago
Fossil EROI is steadily declining and renewable EROI isn’t as high, in fact it’s much lower when you include battery storage. It’s going to get more expensive.
downrightmike3 days ago
Just like abortions in the 70's stopped the super criminals from existing in the 90's. Not having unwanted kids goes a long way to prevent crime. Now we are in the place where people want kids, but can't afford them so they aren't.
OutOfHere3 days ago
Crime will surely go back in red states in a couple of decades due to the current return of the abortion bans in those states.
manwe1503 days ago
I’m not sure if either of you are being honestly factual or snarky, but I seem to recall this hypothesis is actually quite highly contested in social circles, and not at all as strongly supported as the parent seems to state it as fact
beaned3 days ago
Children have never been more affordable than they are now. People's wants and expectations have changed.
chanakya3 days ago
Exactly. If you want to bring up kids the way they were brought up in the 50s and 60s, it will cost less as a proportion of people's incomes today. No one wants to bring up kids that way, though.
bdangubic3 days ago
might be craziest thing written here this month, I really hope you were being sarcastic
searealist3 days ago
I thought we were pretending it was lead?
JumpCrisscross3 days ago
What’s wrong with the lead hypothesis? It explains about 4 to 15% of the effect since 1990 [1].
Read the full thread on Hacker News →
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