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How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far?forecastingresearch.substack.com

We take an initial look at where median forecasts are (mostly) underestimating and (sometimes) overestimating AI progress, adoption, and impact.

2 points•gmays•4 days ago•2 comments•
#ai#progress#forecasts#ai progress#accurate#far#progress forecasts#ai progress forecasts

2 comments

michaelastreiko4 days ago
The calibration angle is useful: separating capability forecasts from deployment and adoption forecasts makes misses easier to diagnose.
katamin4 days ago
I think this will widen the gap even more.

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