Tokyo is raising the bar for permanent residency amid a broader rightward shift in the Asian nation's politics.

206 points•mikhael•4 days ago•617 comments•

617 comments

crakhamster014 days ago
> By some estimates, Japan’s foreign-born population could reach the OECD average of 10 percent by 2070.

Ignoring whether the new rules are reasonable, the most baffling part of all this is how small the foreign population in Japan is.

Things are undoubtedly harder for the average Japanese citizen these days, but foreigners make up just 3% of the population. Targeting this cohort, I can't imagine a single policy change that would positively impact the lives of non-foreigners. Even if you snapped your fingers and deported every foreigner out of Japan, the only noticeable impact would be a shortage of low-wage workers/convenience store staff, who are predominantly from SE and South Asian countries.

The foreign population growing from 3% today to 10% in 45 years should be a consideration for sure, but the amount of attention and media play immigration issues get in Japan is astonishing. I don't think the politicians are acting in bad faith, so my conclusion is that they simply don't know what else to do to improve things.

makeitdouble4 days ago
> I don't think the politicians are acting in bad faith, so my conclusion is that they simply don't know what else to do to improve things.

For better or worse, the current gov is doing quite a lot. The current plan on cutting the VAT from 10% to 1% for two years for instance isn't something easy by any means. Wether it matters is another issue, but they're visibly doing stuff.

Policy toward foreign residents is mostly to address the rising nationalist sentiment and the tension with China and surrounding countries. Those have nothing to do with immigrants, but there is very little the gov can do about it, so showing they're doing "something" vaguely related is their next move.

AlchemistCamp3 days ago
It's a very different situation in Japan than most western countries. In western OECD countries, many large immigrant groups, particularly from East Asia or India have noticeably lower crime rates than the baseline. But in Japan, there are no large groups of foreigners in Japan that don't commit crimes at far higher levels than the extremely low Japanese baseline.
crakhamster013 days ago
> But in Japan, there are no large groups of foreigners in Japan that don't commit crimes at far higher levels than the extremely low Japanese baseline.

Can you share a source for this?

From the most recent numbers I've found - "foreign nationals" made up 5.5% of all arrests in 2024, while comprising just 3% of the population. But that number includes visitors/tourists as well, and that group accounts for two-thirds of all cases. [0]

Taken together, it seems like foreign residents at worse match the Japanese baseline, but are likely committing crimes less often.

[0] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/12/19/japan/crime-leg...

pfannkuchen3 days ago
I don’t like how the phrase “commit crime” frames the foreigner as morally bad.

Japanese people all have a long family history of living inside of the same flavor of society they live in now.

Outsiders might on average have a harder time coping with the expectations of Japanese society, because they don’t share this multigenerational experience in the society. The degree to which they will have a hard time likely depends on how similar the society their own multigenerational experience comes from is to Japanese society, along the most relevant behavioral dimensions.

It’s not that they are bad people, they just have a harder time with the system. We can’t really blame them for that, can we? While at the same time, it is a valid reason to not let them in.

SenHeng3 days ago
The right wing commentariat has heavily focused on foreigners buying up all the condos in Tokyo in the past several years, believing it to be the cause of the current property bubbles and cascading rise of living costs.

Last month, the government announced the results of a flawed[0] but informative survey of condo buyers. Turns out, barely 3% of condos were sold to foreigners.

Th right wing commentariat howled and didn’t believe the results, coming up with all sorts of conspiracy theories, they’re using a Japanese proxy, they’re buying through naturalised citizens, etc.

I wish I could find the article, it’s on Yahoo news and the comments are … enlightening.

0: flawed, because they ran a simple regex on owners’ names, those with non-Japanese names = foreigner.

Edit: found it

https://www.reddit.com/r/japanresidents/comments/1wh9uxj/for...

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/97286038fd1ac0b4b2c3251d9d...

expedition324 days ago
It would not surprise me if there were more foreigners in Japan in the early 20th century than today.
throwaway20374 days ago
Are you familiar with the technical intern programme in Japan? There are millions of foreigners living in Japan working low(er) skill jobs.
lazyasciiart4 days ago
This is certainly going to conflict with their moves to make it easier to attract aged care workers to the country. Perhaps all the elderly people are expected to patriotically look after themselves?

https://unseen-japan.com/foreign-elderly-care-workers-japan/

boelboel3 days ago
Not Japan but Korea has awful elder welfare, highest rate of suicide among elderly. Around 1/1000 men over 80kill themselves each year.
maxgashkov4 days ago
These are not in conflict. The recent changes make almost impossible for a low-wage worker in the elderly care sector to get permanent residence and hence become a "burden" to society longterm, but on the other hand, specified skilled worker visa (SSW) program expands even more. The gist of it is that the worker can come and work for a specific industry (in reality it almost always means specific company) for a 5 years max and then fuck off back to their country.

I shit you not, this is the plan.

polotics4 days ago
Wow and care workers expected to be submitted to this vampiric scheme are expected to provide hood care? How naive can the japanese be?
naishoya2 days ago
As for the SSW plan, there are two tiers to the program. Have you actually worked here on a SSW, or just heard about it by rough description?

SSW1 is a max of 5 years, non renewable. Somewhat similar and somewhat different from TITP (training) allows a path to SSW1 readiness and completion of TITP qualifies workers without testing for SSW1, SSW1 is intended to prepare workers for SSW2, which requires documented work and a test.

After 3 years employment as SSW1 (or two years if workers role includes supervisory management and is documented properly) every SSW1 worker is eligible to take a single test for SSW2. The SS2 visa is also a 5 year max but is RENEWABLE indefinitely. This isn't 'permanent residency' but a rolling work visa with it's own eligibility.

Now, if a worker cannot acquire the proficiency to pass the SW2 test before 5 years is over; then perhaps they should return, because they do not seem to be studying the job they are engaged in and not engaging in becoming more proficient in helping their employer's business grow. They may remain at the same job with the SSW2 visa, continue at the same pay, and perform the same work; so there is no motive for their employer to make obtaining the SSW2 visa difficult other than that they may regret having that employee after seeing their work ethic and output.

However the SSW1 and SSW2 visas do not lock you into a single employer. Workers are free to quit and/or find another place to work, are eligible for unemployment if your employer fires or lays you off not-for-cause, and have 90 days to get new employment in either event (quit or fired) with significant systemic assistance (HelloWork among them) for finding a new employer.

The 'specific' company aspect is for the initial application for SSW 'eligibility certificate' but workers are eligible to work for any employer from day one of their visa issuance. Yes, these SSWs are industry specific, as the tests for each type of 'specific skills' is independent and unique, but one can take additional, different industry tests while in country on one kind of SSW1 visa and then apply for 'designated activities' to engage in cross industry work, and this would allow continuation of SSW1 without moving to SSW2 by reapplication for 'eligibility' in the second industry at the end of the 5 year non-renewable SSW1. Some industries have more applicants than allowed visas, some industries never get over about 30% of the needed SSW1/2 workers.

It is not predatory, does not take advantage of workers who are diligent and studious. It certainly is not a route to work-play in a bar and doing casual part time host work. It is for serious workers in specific high need fields who may otherwise lack degrees and professional work experience which would qualify for the higher level visas.

Framing it as abusive or predatory is to not understand the system at all. The principal guardrails are actually on the applying employer, with strong requirements for a third party (Registered Support Organization) to make sure that the work conditions and terms are safe and honest, pay and compensation rates are not lower than standard for natural employees, participation in insurance, tax, retirement, and banking are proper, access to safe clean housing and other necessary social needs are met, such as Japanese language study, social integration and participation ~ neighborhood regular clean up, and local matsuri festival invites.

Sidebar - The clean up might sound like work, but is a time to meet and socialize with your neighbors and be seen as a participant who 'helps out'. There is usually so little actual trash that it's more like an Easter egg hunt than anything else - find a discarded nicotine-gum wrapper or a smashed plastic bottle if you're lucky - my last clean up day we didn't get even half of an office waste-bin worth for the whole block among 20 plus people over 45 minutes. But I do meet new people almost every time and have become 'old acquaintances' to others. In the event of an earthquake or other natural disaster, these are the people you will probably be with, so it's best to build some friendship just in case, if for no other reason.

In general, the citizens and communities all over Japan are some of the most welcoming, appreciative, and encouraging places anywhere. Yes, Ive checked. I have been to, lived in, and have family who live in or have lived in North and South America, Southeast Asia, Polynesia, Scotland (Shetland), England, Western Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. They all seem to agree with my assessment, Japan is the nicest and most livable place of all, at least for me and my wife.

Yes there are particular difficulties and established 'why cant it be easier' aspects to life here, and even the locals will admit to consternation abut some rigid formalism, but on the whole it is a wonderful place to live and work. The further one gets from the middle of Tokyo and Osaka the gentler life is, period. Get more than half an hour by bus or car away from a Shinkansen station and it's a very different worldview, that 99.5% of foreigners never see. I highly recommend it, even if it requires learning to speak some Japanese to get by. They are so surprised by anyone who would make the effort and travel off the main path to see the place.

郷に入ってば郷に従う Go ni ireba Go ni shitagau "When in Rome, do as the Romans"

Magi6044 days ago
They're banking on robots with advanced AI brains to take care of them.
boelboel4 days ago
Notoriously they have been since about the 90s ...
bamboozled3 days ago
So they will be replacing themselves with robots then? It's either foreigner workers or robots, either way, the average Joey Japan doesn't end up with any more money in their pocket and therefore many people will still struggle to find the money to have children.
rrrrrrrrrrrryan4 days ago
This is not a joke - they're actually banking on this.
nutjob24 days ago
> Perhaps all the elderly people are expected to patriotically look after themselves?

I think that a lot of them feel they should patriotically starve to death.

https://www.deseret.com/2007/10/12/20046650/starving-man-s-d...

famahar4 days ago
It's really unfortunate that they have approved these changes. I know at least 7 people that have decided to leave Japan because of it. They were making enough money to support themselves, but under the rule they basically gave no chance of ever reaching that new income requirement. Some jobs just don't have that much upward financial mobility. Which is fine if you live outside the city without a large family, but these rules are harsh to anyone that isn't working a high pay job. Permanent recidency would have allowed them to work outside their visa category, easily start a business, and utilize their Japanese language skills in a larger market.

Its quite a shock since historically the government has moved extremely slow when implementing policies that have a large impact. But the last 6 months have been extremely anxiety inducing with a new immigration change being announced and approved every month.

PorciiVorbesc4 days ago
>I know at least 7 people that have decided to leave Japan because of it.

Wouldn't that make the Japanese locals happy as that means (in theory) 7 new job vacancies and 7 more free homes on the market for them?

Even if that's not exactly how this works in practice, if that's how voters see it, then they will support it.

famahar4 days ago
A politician can spin it that way sure, despite foreigners owning 0.12 percent of property and most foreigner jobs (at least the ones my friends have) requiring fluent English. It's not a threat to Japanese people, but with the right populist figure, anything can sound like a threat. What I find so sad about this is the lack of empathy for people that worked hard to build a life here, paid their taxes, and followed the law. They did nothing wrong, but are the targets of a population primed to take their economic woes and anger out on people simply living their life peacefully.
anigbrowl4 days ago
(in theory) 7 new job vacancies and 7 more free homes

No. Japan already has low unemployment and high overtime demands due to worker shortages, and property is already cheap (even in most cities other than Tokyo) due to a combination of falling population, complex construction/demolition codes, changing lifestyles, and a different view of asset classes/investment practices from the US.

It's kinda like how nobody likes inflation (other than certain kinds of debtors) but a deflationary economy isn't a good solution to that problem. This will have a similar effect because the people leaving are likely to be the most culturally assimilated/affiliated with decent language skills etc., but their departure won't alleviate the demand for additional labor in industry and agriculture so there will probably still be a net increase in short-term and illegal foreign residency.

rrrrrrrrrrrryan4 days ago
Japan does not have a shortage of homes - they have a surplus. Their economy very much need younger workers as their birth rates have fallen. But instead of simply allowing new workers in, they're choosing to devalue the shit out of their currency, then complaining about the huge influx of tourism that it triggered.
motbus34 days ago
No it won't. Because Japanese folks did not want that job before and will not want them later.

You need to be dull to not see that get trained adults that you never spent a cent in education to generate revenue and taxes and have no access to benefits is not a great deal.

Well, it is easy to be blind when you let a racist speech take your eyes.

hackeraccount3 days ago
Economies don't always work that way - just as win/win situations really exist so do lose/lose situations.
throwaway20374 days ago

    > I know at least 7 people that have decided to leave Japan because of it.
Where did they go instead? Can they become permanent resident more easily in their new location (if not home country)?

    > They were making enough money to support themselves, but under the rule they basically gave no chance of ever reaching that new income requirement.
What was their job and income? I assume they were doing something like teaching English or a non-permanent university professor. Those roles will probably never pay enough to become permanent resident without marrying a local. If they were teaching English, their best chance to make the income requirement is to start a small English language school. You can really grid it out to meet the income requirements.
thatslast4 days ago
> 56.3 percent of Japanese people said they opposed accepting more foreigners, up from 35.6 percent in 2024

that's a huge jump in 1 year. What happened?

NalNezumi4 days ago
Extreme tourism influx due to covid rebound and weak yen. And most Japanese people not being observant enough to understand that those foreigners causing trouble (or simply just putting pressure on existing infrastructure) is not the residents but shitty tourists.

Most of the issue they have would be reduced if the yen got stronger or they introduced some expensive tourist fee, but that's very unlikely

PorciiVorbesc4 days ago
>What happened?

Johnny Somali.

bacchusracine4 days ago
This is the actual answer but too many people are invested in their own narratives to see it.

When you visit someone's country you are not just a guest, you are the model for everyone else who comes from where you do and who looks like you do. The assumption is that how you behave is how others from where you came from will behave. In an age where social media exposes everyone all the time, bad behavior gets seen and shown to others and conclusions drawn based on that behavior.

But rather than admit that this is a thing which exists, others just want to press tired arguments about race and racism. Which even if true, who cares? It's their country. They're allowed to welcome or decline anyone they wish. How arrogant are we really to think that we can dictate who and what others allow in their homes?

Amazing.

motbus34 days ago
I agree that pr** should be banned from Japan. But he was used a tool against people who have nothing to do with him.

My black friends tell me that it is very hard to be taken seriously when your kin thinks that attitude is a matter of noise. One of them told me his relationship ended with his fiance because her father was "racist" and didn't believe he was one of the most well paid engineers in the state.

anigbrowl4 days ago
Sanseito scapegoating foreigners for every problem (particularly Chinese and SE Asian), highly organized social media campaigns with a lot of help from western right wingers, nuisance video streamers exploiting the weak yen to do 'insult/abuse the locals vacations' for cheap, and a rise in anti-Chinese sentiment since the beginning of the year.

Early in Takaichi's premiership, she answered a parliamentary question about the possibility of a Chinese attack on taiwan by sying that this would present an 'existential' problem for Japan. This alarmed the Chinese who saw it as an intrusion on their private business and a reminder of Japanese war atrocities; but before they could make a restrained diplomatic complaint, a Chinese consul in (iirc) Osaka went nuts on social media telling Takaichi to pull her filthy neck in before it was chopped off. After that neither side could back down without losing face so they're stuck in a diplomatic deep freeze.

There are a lot of other structural factors I could go into but those are the major differences since 2024. Actual incidence of crime or large population shifts seem to be absent.

SenHeng3 days ago
While Takaichi is responsible for the lack of tact in that situation, I personally blame the opposition politician that raised the question hoping to score some cheap political points when the end result couldn’t have been more obvious.
maxgashkov4 days ago
Purchasing power dropped with yen weakening, shrinkflation and inflation in all shopping categories, stagnant salaries and work policies + politicians who are preying on all of this with the "foreigners bad" rhetoric.
happytoexplain4 days ago
I acknowledge and sympathize with the pain this will cause, but in regards to Japan itself: Good for them. Not because it is a rightward shift, but because it is a shift toward pragmatism in the face of the inherent tension between respect for all people and respect for one's own people and culture.

In my humble opinion, an ideal world is a liberal one with cherry-picked, tightly controlled, practical conservative elements that boldly take on the intimidating job of maintaining the balance between love and reason.

wk_end4 days ago
This is a shift away from pragmatism; pragmatism would be acknowledging Japan's economic need for immigration.

Whether Europe or North America have a problem with too much immigration and not enough integration is debatable, maybe - and I suspect that's where your perspective comes from - but Japan decidedly does not (maybe too much tourism, and I feel at least some of the antagonism towards foreigners comes from that, but no matter). Immigrants still make up a very small percentage of the population, mostly in Tokyo; given the existing challenges with immigration, they tend to be extremely diligent, respectful, appreciative of Japanese culture, and hard-working.

This is just a populist conservative government pandering to the some of the worst aspects in society to distract from their failures.

pjjpo4 days ago
This is a government that needs anything to distract from its failures indeed. But that's not changing unfortunately - given there seems to be no real direction to fix the economy that is currently in a gutter, I think it's pragmatic to restrict immigration. Crime is skyrocketing, both Japanese and immigrants - even the Yakuza are getting into scam operations on Katagi, i.e. normal people. This basically never happened before and is a turning point. It's what happens in a bad economy and will just continue to get worse.

Low wage immigrants will not be able to fix the economy (demographics related decline is still decades away, yes it is important long term but not if the fundamentals don't improve). They will increase crime though since that's just what happens when you are poor in a bad economy. There won't be culling of poor locals but restricting inpu where possible, immigration, seems ok given the overall picture.

flamethrower1234 days ago
I’d say having a wealth and language filter is pragmatism.
appreciatorBus4 days ago
Pragmatism could just as easily be a decision by the public collectively to have more babies. There’s nothing about immigration that makes it inherently pragmatic. It could be, with the agreement of the electorate, away to compensate for the electorates decisions to have fewer babies. But it’s not up for us outside of Japan to lecture them on whether or not they are being consistent on this.
happytoexplain4 days ago
What's pragmatic depends on your values.
knlam4 days ago
I doubt that. The population is aging, and there are serious shortage of blue collar workers

Japan is facing a significant shortage of long-term care workers. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare estimates that the country will need approximately 2.4 million care workers by FY2026 and 2.72 million by FY2040 (about 250,000 and 570,000 more, respectively, than the 2.15 million employed in FY2022)[1]

[1] https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_41379.html

tremon4 days ago
There is nothing pragmatic about kicking out the workforce you imported because of a shortage of native labour. The pragmatist stance would be to accept those differences, and focus on addressing/alleviating them. Cutting your nose to spite your face is more idealism than pragmatism.
cafebabbe4 days ago
This is going to cause more pain to the Japanese people.
happytoexplain4 days ago
They don't believe so. Maybe they are wrong! There are pros and cons.
greggoB4 days ago
I mean, sure, so long as they're willing to deal with the consequences of an aging population and a shrinking workforce.
happytoexplain4 days ago
It's OK if they choose to seek other avenues for dealing with that problem. The easiest solution is often not the best, and sometimes there is no net-positive path forward.
jgb19844 days ago
It's baffling to me how we come up with economic justifications for forced mass immigration. Mass immigration of mainly non-western low skill / low education people is causing a catastrophic economic burden on western Europe. Unemployment rates of those are much higher than natives, even when you look at 2nd or 3rd generation. Not to mention that most European capitals have become poverty ghettos where the original inhabitants don't recognize their own country any longer. Non-EU foreign origins are overrepresented in crime and prison stats. There are not enough low skilled jobs. There is not enough housing. There is not enough infrastructure. Mass immigration is the most disruptive disaster that was ever forced upon western Europe (forced, because there has been a large democratic majority AGAINST this type of immigration since decades).

Very sad state of affairs. Good on Japan that they see the danger and try to do something about it before it's too late.

llm_nerd4 days ago
> I mean, sure, so long as they're willing to deal with the consequences of an aging population and a shrinking workforce.

They're pretty clearly aware of the dire fear-mongering, and chose their path accordingly. They decided to sidestep the pyramid scheme of perpetual growth.

Here in Canada we've been pitched this same scary argument for decades, leading to outrageous levels of immigration, coupled with a growing entitlement among the class (which leads to a complete refusal to integrate in any meaningful way, often while incanting the laughable pablum about mosaic versus melting pot while dragging regressive, destructive habits and cultural norms to Canada, tragedy of the commons behaviour, etc).

Somehow this mass immigration has made us older, and less competitive, moving in exactly the opposite direction of the magical solution it promised while giving away the country. It has led to massive lines for every job, downward pressure on wages, and oversubscribed services at every level.

---

Every now and then there is a discussion about the difference between an "expat" and an "immigrant", but it really is important that people are honest about the difference, because it is very real, and it is informative to why the myth of immigration as a solution doesn't track with the reality that immigration is often massively destructive.

An expat is usually some Westerner that moved to some random country for adventure, a change, whatever. Occasionally they send a postcard home and share videos from the beach. Whatever.

An immigrant, on the other hand, is someone that moves to a country as a beachhead to drag their entire extended family there, often then expanding out from there. Which is precisely what many Western countries have seen where they bring in the "skilled worker", and then the skilled worker drags over their elderly parents, and also their "auntie" as a purported childcare giver, and then registers a business and sponsors their village through every loophole and circumvention, and then... This has destroyed the acceptance of immigration and completely obliterated the "oh you're getting older, something something labour shortage" nonsense.

We need to move on from the mass immigration is the solution horseshit, because all it has done is led every developed country to lurch perilously to the right, giving an easy open for charlatans to take advantage of a real problem to push a lot of ancillary things as well.

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