203 points•runeks•6 days ago•269 comments•

269 comments

gumby6 days ago
It’s CLV (customer lifetime value): the integral of the MRR. Something most companies mentioned on HN should understand though it feels like Apple is the only one that takes it seriously

(And with Apple’s new CEO, the early signs are that commitment is headed for the ash heap as well, but it seems the Mafia may have a longer horizon)

Smalltalker-806 days ago
The Mafia may also have shorter horizon: - Fantanyl 'customers' have munch higher risk of sudden-death and then stop being customers. - Fentanyl is a much more debilitating drug than heroin and much cheaper. So Fentanyl customers are less able to gather the money for the next fix, and don't need as much (less revenue).
bombcar6 days ago
Also if the family has some addicted to “normal” drugs it’s acceptable; but if they get fentanyl from you and die the next mafia family reunion will be spicy.
throwawayffffas6 days ago
Hence they have a shorter CLV.
sandworm1016 days ago
More than simply being alive, they want customers who can stay employed and so continue to pay higher prices over a greater number of years. Cocaine and pot are horrible but their users can maintain a working life for years or decades, making them more profitable drugs in the long term.
moralestapia6 days ago
That's what CLV means, dude ... come on.
ramblerman5 days ago
lol. Whoosh
happyopossum6 days ago
> with Apple’s new CEO, the early signs are that commitment is headed for the ash heap as well

He’s been CEO less than a month and everything that’s happening right now has been in the works for multiple years….

fsckboy5 days ago
that doesn't mean the early signs aren't here that that commitment is headed for the ash heap.
eightnoneone6 days ago
What do you see as signs? I was hopeful that Ternus’s hardware background was a positive.
lostlogin5 days ago
The dubious signs (which predate Ternus) are the focus on service revenue and advertising.

Both these make Apple worse.

keeda5 days ago
I think the “early signs” are a reference to this? https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/06/phil-schillers-app-store-e...
bilekas6 days ago
I'm no expert, but I've always thought that adding much more risk to the lives of your customers unnecessarily is not good for business.
Someone6 days ago
In this market, a better high for less money will attract lots of customers, even if it is less healthy than the alternative.

So, if you’re in the business of selling the somewhat healthier product, and one supplier starts to supply the otherwise superior product, that’s not good for business, either. You will lose customers.

Now, do you accept that, saying “I won’t sell that”, do you fight to outlaw the product (will be hard given at you’re not selling healthy products, either), do you fight the suppliers of the new product (a gang war) or do you add the product to your inventory?

There often isn’t a clear choice; each option has its pros and cons.

compass_copium6 days ago
Fentanyl is not a better high. It's decidedly less euphoric than traditional opioids. It's just dirt cheap, ridiculously potent so it's easier to traffic, and doesn't have any agricultural footprint. The market pressure for fent is completely on the supply side.
throwaway634676 days ago
I guess if you’re the mafia you just murder the competitors. Can’t have stronger regulation than that!
talon86355 days ago
Fentanyl isn’t a better high is just (much) cheaper to ship/transport given its potency
bigfishrunning6 days ago
"less healthy" is a bit of an understatement; they're not selling cigarettes that will kill you in the long term (or even the medium or short term). Fentanyl will kill you the first time you're exposed to it.

Increasing the potency of some drug with fentanyl is an interesting choice, because by the time the user *knows* how strong it is, there's some likelihood they're already dead.

burningChrome6 days ago
There were rumors that that the "Chapitos" in Sinaloa purportedly banned the production and sale of fentanyl in their territories.

There were signs warning of this and if I remember correctly, they murdered two major fentanyl cooks, put their bodies on the side of a road, along with a warning sign and two huge piles of the drug around the bodies.

pleasantpeasant6 days ago
Drugs are a lot more geopolitical than people realize. Who brings drugs in and why drugs are coming into your country are important questions that nations have to ask.
mdp20216 days ago
And: shaking the scene in a way that will attract too much attention, including crackdowns, is very bad for business.
scyzoryk_xyz6 days ago
Almost like it's not really about "business" at all and something more is going on for all the parties involved
mdp20216 days ago
Soon after John Stewart Mill we assessed that markets are not perfect.

Accelerations in the different directions of bounded incentives create as-if Brownian motions, - not the stability towards optimality of a perfect organic model.

Or: what you write is rational, but people are easily not... The supply side should disappear from the market when irrational, but changes are slow..

UpsideDownRide6 days ago
Did we? Because while seemingly obvious nowadays it is not a settled matter in orthodox econ academia.
arealaccount6 days ago
If its cheap enough to be worth letting a few customers churn, then profits will be positive
pluc6 days ago
This was the way it worked up here (in QC) with the 81s. If you sold shit that could draw attention to you, your organization or suppliers, you were swiftly taught not to. They had decent quality control, but as their grip slipped so did quality. Now we get fentanyl overdoses weekly.
skrebbel6 days ago
I googled so y'all don't have to: "QC" means Quebec. 81 means Hell's Angels as per sister comment.
nsavage6 days ago
I'll be honest, this was helpful for me even as someone who lives about 2km from the Quebec border. I was uncertain as you don't often see it in the Hacker News context.
triceratops5 days ago
Until you explained I was having so much fun thinking of a quality control department in the 80s dealing drugs on the side.
newsclues6 days ago
81 = Hells Angels

Who these days are more a front org for the CCP/triads who seem to be running much of the criminal underworld in Canada with their network of smuggling and money laundering.

My theory is that the CCP/triads leveraged drug addiction within the HA and killed anyone that objected, and everyone else got rich...

pluc6 days ago
There's been a criminal civil war raging between HAs and every other smaller org that wants to expand (look at Blood Family Mafia specifically, Arab Power as well). HAs have lost some feathers in pretty gruesome ways. They're all older and neglected to replenish the ranks in order to preserve prestige. Street gangs didn't. If I'm competing in that world, I'm funding the underdogs until leadership trembles, then we make a deal. I believe we're at that point now. All those groups - including the Sicilians - have all been slowly invalidated and Angels are appearing more stable/powerful these days (even though we just outlawed their colours - but even that gives them prestige).
hnrprtlpdb6 days ago
Did wastewater drug monitoring for a while, and the annoying bit was fentanyl metabolites sitting near the detection limit, so absence isn't proof.
vintermann6 days ago
From what I understand this uses overdose numbers. They should also not be assumed to be comparable across countries (recording practices vary widely), but if they tell the same story as wastewater monitoring there may be something to it.
dmos626 days ago
Was that because there wasn't much fentanyl use or because fentanyl metabolites are somehow harder to detect?
vintermann6 days ago
I assume drugs that are potent in tiny quantities leave less metabolites.
tantalor6 days ago
If it's below the noise floor, then you didn't really detect it, did you.
bluGill6 days ago
Statistics can detect a lot of things below the noise floor given enough samples. However there are a lot of questions when it attempts this.
artisinal6 days ago
Does wastewater drug monitoring account / offset for constipation caused by drug use?

There isn't anything to measure if the poop is unable to leave the end-user.

rithdmc6 days ago
I believe it's urine based.

Either way, the constipation would affect different users at different times, so I don't think it would matter to the data. In other words, your idea stinks ;)

astura6 days ago
Drugs are detected in urine, not feces.
mexicocitinluez6 days ago
The Godfather overly romanticized the mafia and made them out to be "violent but in a principled way" people and nothing could be further from the truth.

It's complete fantasy that the mafia didn't deal hard drugs.

https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/the-pizza-connection-35th-a...

Orson Welles said it best:

"'The Godfather' was the glorification of a bunch of bums who never existed."

TeMPOraL6 days ago
Well, I don't buy the "principled" part either, not at scale.

But it is organized, and there's not that much fundamental difference between corporations and criminal enterprises, not in the ways they are run. The details boil down to different trade-offs taken wrt. risk vs. reward related to staying on the good side of the law. A lot of the violence (particularly the "principled"-looking one) seems to stem from the fact that a criminal org needs to built its own layer of coordination and enforcement, since by definition it cannot rely on public services of law enforcement and the legal system.

mexicocitinluez6 days ago
There is no need to stay "on the good side of the law." They pay off cops. They pay off the judges.

If they can kill with impunity they can certainly do the same with drugs.

Large-scale crack cocaine gangs existed too with substantial levels of organization but they still sell crack.

They're mostly unintelligent thugs motivated by greed. And I think the "Why would they kill their own customers?" implies they think that far ahead. Which is probably true as well for most major corps. They'll take short term profit over quite literally anything.

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