Should you buy oil right now? Hormuz Signal answers with a live verdict built from fast signals (intraday Brent, conflict tempo, live strait crossings) on top of a 0–100 composite of Iran-conflict escalation risk —…

6 points•mrPaul658•6 days ago•4 comments•
This is a side project I have developed to get hard data on Hormuz Strait escalation risk.

The thing is the narrative was at some point "The Strait traffic is at 50% its pre-war level" when in reality it was below 10%. Not only that but some things like the levels of oil in reserves in USA or amount of oil China imports, etc can have big impact on the political optics of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked.

Other sensors like seismic activity in Iran can tell two things: (1) did Iran just test a nuclear device?; (2) did someone just hit Pickaxe Mountain with nuclear device? -- both aren't theoretical questions but discussed in the open by geopolitical experts. Not to mention others mentioning "Iran annihilation" at the UN yesterday.

The point of the website is this: in the crazy times narrative can be crazy too. Better look up hard data and consolidate it into a single score / chart. This will tell you much more about the situation on the ground than listening to the talk. The site has much more data than this though. Check it out for yourself!

4 comments

wolfinunix4 days ago
Nice work on this. I don't really trust what's being said out there either. I would trust your composite score before the media any day lol.

I took a different approach to the same problem: an RTS style live map with ship traffic, kinetic events, and news wires.

This way I can "monitor the situation" :) without having to search through X or different data points. Instead it's all pushed to me in one location. I even have audible pings so you can have it running in the background until something important happens.

It's live at situation.dividendsolo.com

mrPaul6584 days ago
Hey Man, this looks good! The approach I try to follow is "how bad is it getting, from data". Your approach seems to be more of "where important things are happening on the map". I love the pings I can hear :-) They draw attention and then no one needs to refresh the page every so often. Good luck with it!
wolfinunix4 days ago
Thank you, means a lot - and you too!
punkhodler6 days ago
Looks great! Question though: what are the weights in the score?

Read the full thread on Hacker News →

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