It's really hard to see anymore where the real money is made and what is a big facade. As it's really simple now to create a huge facade. Before it needed more work to show something big which was actually small. But now you can generate the show.

And there are actually some which are really big. But there are so many more overflowing the world with non existing businesses that it's hard to decipher what is real and what is not. It also makes learning from the successful ones way harder.

This will go on until the AI CAPEX starts to drain. But there's a chance that this never happens.

All that money being spent on NVidia GPUs has to become tokens which will be bought by a business.

Many of those AI businesses are making those LLMs do something useful, which makes sense.

But right now nobody has an idea how much a single token really costs.

Once the CAPEX has to start showing some real cashflow positive numbers, it's likely that the token prices will go up, margins will compress and a lot of businesses will go bankrupt.

Of course, if this even stops. We could keep going on forever if AGI/ASI arrives, then all our previous ideas about economics which is based on human labour mostly is outdated, and we will need to figure out new economics!

What’s happening is everyone is successful beyond their wildest dreams when raising the next round, and it used to be that you might find out more on exit but that’s getting more rare.

Now it’s a competition to be more manic than your competitors, and everyone has a gun out to shoot anyone who breaks the illusion of unlimited growth and unimaginable wealth

Those are astronomical figures to be honest. Unless someone shows you their books, skepticism should be the default

No it does not give me FOMO. These stories are the most vocal. You never hear about the failures or the zombies