Certainly the industry is transforming, however, the people and organizations falling into the trap of no longer reading and writing code only do so at their peril.

386 points•dimonomid•9 days ago•554 comments•

554 comments

NalNezumi9 days ago
The problem imo is the slow deterioration of institutional knowledge that offloading the mental task of wisdom gathering to AI is causing.

One interesting comparison is to the history of manufacturing. West/America decided one day that manufacturing would be cheaper to outsource and better (short term) profit was to be made by outsourcing it all to China. The institutional expertise started to deteriorate, to the point that America simply didn't even have the capacity, or expertise anymore to produce stuff (such as grill brush [1])

I feel like you could take all the handwavy comment that are made today to dismiss this caution, and find equal dismissal back then when companies were actively outsourcing the manufacturing.

"I'm coding 10x faster" "look at the output velocity per employee"

"we are producing much more (in China)" "look at profit / number of (manufacturing) employers"

Seems ok if you're American / Chinese but I'm struggling to understand how the rest can be OK with allowing institutional knowledge to deteriorate while having an active dependency to the former two. We already see this with the tech dependency towards USA and manufacturing competition from China.

[1] https://youtu.be/3ZTGwcHQfLY

jordanb9 days ago
> I feel like you could take all the handwavy comment that are made today to dismiss this caution, and find equal dismissal back then when companies were actively outsourcing the manufacturing.

Absolutely people were extremely dismissive to anyone saying that we're losing the ability to make things in this country!

There were all these theories like Comparative Advantage that people would trot out to point out that, if you don't like outsourcing, not only are you ignorant and backwards you're also probably racist.

nixon_why699 days ago
I specifically remember seeing the ricardian tables, featuring 8th grade math proving how competitive advantage means everyone wins. This was very persuasive to me as a college sophomore, all my professors were on board and I was young.

I guess we were all lacking wisdom.

wat100009 days ago
And they were right. American manufacturing is $3 trillion/year, second only to China, and 1/5th of the entire world. American built airliners and American built engines fly all over the world. Millions of American cars come out of factories every year. American rockets put more into orbit than everyone else combined.

The idea that the US lost its manufacturing is not based in reality. One reason people think that is because people think cheap plastic crap and consumer electronics when they think “manufacturing.” Another reason is that US manufacturing has become highly efficient and automated, so a fairly small portion of the population works in it.

Yeah, your iPhone wasn’t built in the US. But the plane that got it here probably was.

FuckButtons8 days ago
If there are not history books out there that try to discern the etiology of those decisions, there really should be.
conmod2789 days ago
What many people don't realize is why is America suddenly caring about manufacturing everything inhouse when Elites decided earlier Globalization was good, because China wants to command respect more than America. That is also the reason why Gold is pushing higher. If China was nobody, no nation would care for gold. So all these unnecessary downstream reasons distort what is actually going on.

If there was no China, Globalization would spread very strongly with Bangladesh manufacturing clothes and Milan doing the fashion show. All those calculations are coming undone. So please keep this main reason front and center when we discuss this matters.

logancbrown9 days ago
This analogy really only works assuming that maintaining [insert company]'s institutional expertise requires N engineers to maintain individual lines of code manually.

This is already showing not to be true with AI. Institutional knowledge is not the same as knowing how to implement low-level software details. Even today, every company does not need engineers to remember git cli syntax by memory, how to write parsers for JSON, or write the large amount of boilerplate from scratch that is at every software company. Most company's already hire engineers who have zero experience in the existing code base, yet they are productive despite this lack of institutional knowledge. For a company to maintain institutional knowledge they may only need N/K engineers.

oblio9 days ago
This breaks down at a sectorial level. If one company offloads that knowledge to the wider economy/world, fine. But if <<all> the companies in a domain/sector do it at the same time, at some point the destruction is extremely hard to undo.
hibikir9 days ago
We were already there at places with a lot of contractors, capped at 1 or 2 year stays. You saw teams of 10, 20, with 2 people with serious institutional knowledge. Now the contractors are just Claude
ecocentrik9 days ago
What really doesn't make sense to me is setting uniform token targets for all engineers. I'd be more interested in setting token ranges with hard limits for certain roles that see diminishing returns from the overuse of coding agents and where maintaining institutional knowledge, architectural awareness... is more valuable than moving as fast as possible. Like everything else, these limits should be adjusted over time as tooling for those roles improves but it really feels like there are human limits that organizations should avoid exceeding.
mitxela9 days ago
De-tracked video link: https://youtu.be/3ZTGwcHQfLY

Do not share videos with si parameters. It links together the accounts of the sender and receiver.

blooalien9 days ago
> Do not share videos with si parameters. It links together the accounts of the sender and receiver.

@mitxela: Thank to for taking a moment of your time to educate those who didn't know.

toomuchtodo9 days ago
I recommend https://sharecleaner.com/ for cleaning links of trackers when sharing from mobile. No affiliation, just a user on iOS.
NalNezumi9 days ago
Thanks. Edited
WarmWash9 days ago
> decided one day that manufacturing would be cheaper to outsource and better (short term) profit was to be made by outsourcing it all to China.

To build a $100M software company, you need 6 engineers and 6 laptops.

To build a $100M hardware company, you need 60 engineers and $100M.

Everyone decided on the most logical choice. It gets even worse if you jump into profit margins, as software is the unambiguous winner there too.

hdgvhicv9 days ago
Until software becomes commodity and generated on the fly by large language models.
maerF0x09 days ago
Most of us can't hunt either. Somethings go away in time because they're no longer needed (by the masses). That is essentially what society does -- it allows us to multiply a few for the benefit of many so the many can focus on other things.

The resilience is more in ensuring archival process to ensure it's never lost forever, and a continuity plan to ensure enough (but few) people still know.

davedx9 days ago
There's a continuum between "vibe coded by someone with no technical knowledge or inclination" and "hand written domain driven design development". You can absolutely use coding agents AND have maintainable code. But yes, the coding agents will not magically make everything maintainable if you don't tell them to.

"Code maintainability and good architecture don’t have good measurements that we can apply"

Who has no wisdom? There are dozens of ways to measure code maintainability. Cyclomatic complexity is just one.

Nothing stops you from wiring up something like SonarQube metrics to your agentic coding workflow.

bunderbunder9 days ago
Plenty of measurements exist, but the trick, as the article said, is finding good measurements.

Cyclomatic complexity has been pretty solidly discredited within the maintainability research community for decades.

Sonar's cognitive complexity metric is a bit better, but here's a study that found that it still only has about a 0.5 correlation with how much difficulty programmers actually had reading code as measured by multiple methods.

They found that the most accurate way to measure code complexity that didn't involve something like an eye tracker or EEG is still basically just vibes - asking programmers if they thought it was hard to understand.

https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/neuroscience/articles/1...

Halstead Effort came in second, and scored pretty well, but here's another one where it doesn't do so well, either. And it scores the SonarQube metrics even worse, with only a 0.35 correlation: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01641...

pjc509 days ago
Yeah, we have this rule in our SQ and I absolutely hate it because of the number of times I'm forced to break something up. Complexity that matters is usually at a higher, more architectural level.
aprilthird20219 days ago
> yes, the coding agents will not magically make everything maintainable if you don't tell them to.

There's the rub. It requires knowing about and caring about maintainability. And a lot of the people who "haven't written a line of code since 2025" don't care

datsci_est_20159 days ago
“Claude, make this code maintainable.”

I’m beginning to believe that if this was a “solvable” problem then the billions of dollars poured into coding agents would have solved it by now.

keeda8 days ago
I agree with the larger point, but here I'll disagree:

> There are dozens of ways to measure code maintainability.

There are no good ways. I'm averse to making absolute statements, but here I'll take that chance. I worked in dev producitivy for years with people who spent decades in that domain across multiple companies with very high volumes of code production. Everybody agreed: All metrics are flawed and even a combination of metrics is insufficient.

Just to give one fundamental reason (in addition to a lot of the sibling comments): for any given metric there are an infinite set of counter-examples that don't trigger any thresholds but are clearly bad code. So these metrics typically only help in trivial cases, don't catch a majority of the cases, and so often become more of an annoyance due to low SNR. A lot of dev productivity work ends up being wiring these metrics in and then providing escape hatches when they inevitably get too noisy!

And most relevant to this discussion: these tools do not say anything about higher-level concerns like architecture, over-engineering and design, which IME is where agents tend to mess up most. I've almost never had a complaint about the code itself; the logic, naming, functions, data structures, even a lot of the testing, are all on point. It's always been the higher-level structure and design: over-engineering, duplicate classes, suboptimal abstractions, redundant operations across layers that could be solved by adding a single variable in a class, etc. etc.

I think the problem, like with code written by humans, is lack of sufficient context while doing a task leading to tunnel-vision. This is why we need to oversee and ensure things are good holistically. I suspect models are now good enough to play the role of an architect as well, though, and I've read some indications of that online... I just haven't tried giving them that much control yet.

CivBase9 days ago
> But yes, the coding agents will not magically make everything maintainable if you don't tell them to.

You say that like adding "Make it maintainable." to your prompts solves the problem. But the reality is we only have weak metrics for measuring maintainability. For example, you can trivially optimize for Cyclomatic complexity by blowing away abstractions and duplicating code everywhere. That doesn't make the code better. Cyclomatic complexity is a tool that has to be applied judiciously.

That doesn't mean you can't or shouldn't use AI to generate code. But it does mean if you want your project to scale, you're still going to need a lot of developer involvement at the code level to ensure the code remains maintainable so that future developers can build on top of it. AI is not like compilers, which allow developers to build complex solutions without being proficient at the next level down (assembly).

palmotea9 days ago
> There's a continuum between "vibe coded by someone with no technical knowledge or inclination" and "hand written domain driven design development". You can absolutely use coding agents AND have maintainable code. But yes, the coding agents will not magically make everything maintainable if you don't tell them to.

Yes. But I think the idea is without "hand written domain driven design development" the result trends to "vibe coded by someone with no technical knowledge or inclination," as developers de-skill.

falserum8 days ago
Some de-skill, but not all.

Somewhat relevant parallel..

Calculators exist, but not all is lost:

- lot of (most?) people can do basic multiplication (I’m too lazy to fetch any stats but I hope you’ll have some observations in your bubble dear reader)

- some people actually compete in mental calculations https://worldmentalcalculation.com/mental-calculations-world...

Same will be with software devs, enthusiasts will continue to exist.

tegeek9 days ago
In the beginning of August 2026, I started a hobby project: building a MongoDB-like database. I have 20 years of industry experience and a master's degree in computer science, so I followed a disciplined, spec-driven development model using Claude, Kiro, Qwen Coder, and Cursor.

The first version was built in about two weeks of part time work. Then I started exploring. I learned relational algebra, researched almost every kind of database, reworked the internals, built a small relational algebra layer, a query planner, and an executor, covering everything from the backend storage to the query language. I learned more in those two months than in the previous 20 years.

Did I care what code the agents wrote? No. I read zero lines of generated code. What I cared about was correctness, verified through tests, and the high-level product features. For the first time in my career, I acted as a senior product manager, steering the project along the right roadmap. Without AI, I wouldn't have been able to do that.

When you have superpowers in your hands, you don't need to worry about the laundry. For the first time in my career, I can produce code in C, C++, Java, .NET, or any other language. Sometimes it takes me longer than a senior developer in that language, but does that really matter? Absolutely not. Writing documentation and code by hand in 2026 is like driving a horse and buggy. It doesn't matter how skilled you are with the reins; you'll never compete with a car. My hobby db project isnt opened source yet.

alansaber9 days ago
"My project isn't open sourced yet" underlines the problem. There has been a massive explosion of software that works, but badly. The average user experience suffers as a result.
aenis9 days ago
Call me cynical, but I dont remember interacting with well engineered software, outside of pure, mainstream opensource repos.

Most of proprietary software is just crap, and always has been. The agents are not producing worse code than typical, demotivated, i-dont-care-what-i-am-building-i-wont-try-using-it corporate development teams have over the years. I'd even bet that because now making changes and fixes is so much easier, the user perceived quality will trend upwards for popular stuff.

WarmWash9 days ago
I would bet every single dollar I have that if the source was shared, there would be 15 "big brains" showing up to point out how it's actually "bad".
Aozora79 days ago
I have seen a decent amount of clearly AI generated software that's useful, would likely not have been made without AI, and is better for for being AI generated. With AI, people make improvements that they would have never have bothered spending time to do manually. If anything, having uncharacteristically good "production value" in a clearly hobby project is how I typically spot AI use in projects that aren't obvious vibe coded slop.

The code itself may or may not be spaghetti. Not that I care as a user. User experience and code quality had never a particularly strong correlation even before AI.

xpct9 days ago
I'm sorry, I just don't buy the hyperbole. Something with your previous approach was deeply wrong if you condensed 20 years of learning into 2 months.
tegeek9 days ago
Databases, programming languages, compilers, operating system internals, networks these things are pretty complicated in itself. With your day jobs you can't master any of this without spending years in your part time. But now at least you can start something of your interest and learn on the way. Learning a new concepts, implements it, test it and reproduce cycle is so fast that it is only possible because of AI. You need to find the process which works for you. AI already knows every programming language, its best practices, entire computer science knowledge is already mastered by current state of AI. There isn't any single database internals which Ai doesnt know. If you dont believe just start implementing JavaScript or C compiler yourself without even having knowledge of compilers and in a few weeks you will where you stand. You will not only having a functional compiler but you will know the internals of compiler constructions, all the concepts.
adverbly9 days ago
Okay, you're going to need to go into a lot more detail about exactly how you learned more in 2 months than you did in 20 years having read zero generated code.

Code examples are literally bread and butter when it comes to learning.

How can you learn without looking at code? That's like saying that you can learn to be an architect without looking at drawings...

tegeek9 days ago
I didnt know what is relational algebra is? why query plannering execution done in certain ways. What are backend storage system available in open source or commercial products. What are the traitts of each backend storage and how does that effects the replication and failover scenarios. I know all of this, I implemented a small subset of sql's relational algebra in my project and its correct and concise. I expored different backend storage systems, first tried one, then move to next and then 3rd in line, all that in span of less than a month without ever looking what code the coding agents generates.
andrenatalbr9 days ago
or how to be a doctor without knowing how to cut open a person and look at the internals. looking forward to the future doctors
hdgvhicv9 days ago
Yet millions of people code react slop without ever touching a line of assembley
tegeek9 days ago
Here is one my project is opened source. Highway https://github.com/System-D-AB/highway

It is fault tolerant, distributed broker which gurantees durable queues, pub/sub and RPC all into one easy to use programming model. The application is in production and passing millions of messages every day with sub-millisecond performance, you can crash a server and replica set invokes within seconds without losing any messages. The entire project is created in less than a month with part time working, just because of AI. Its in production and already proven.

mjr009 days ago
Not that Github vanity metrics are the end-all be-all, but let's be real: this project has 0 forks and 1 star. You don't know if it properly functions because nobody is using it. Calling it "proven" production software is a joke.

Yes, you're running it in production, but to put it in perspective: PHP 5 was also proven production software at one point, running way more production instances than you.

zparky8 days ago
git ls-files | xargs cloc

~41k SLOC, ~11k lines of comments

TrackerFF9 days ago
Maybe I've just given up, or maybe I'm a realist? But I fully believe AI will just...catch up with everything?

There's so much money in it right now. There's such a momentum. There are zero incentives to slow down for those that are in charge.

I've accepted that in 5-10 years, the vast majority of human devs. and engineers will not touch a single line of code. It'll be small increments, with a couple of big ones here and there.

And there will not be any triumph for those that hold steadfast to the principle of human coding. They'll be tiny boutique shops that do custom stuff, in the same way cobblers are to the mega shoe factories.

physicallyIllfr9 days ago
We've been able to make watches with machines for 50 years. Handmade Watchmakers, and their producuts are more valuable and in demand than any guy running a conveyer belt. They still make 20x more if not 50x. People look up to them.

You can make a choice not to become a button pusher and still do things by hand. You dont have to fry your brain. You're falling for a massive trap to strip you of your value.

austinthetaco9 days ago
the difference is that code is not something the average person will marvel at over the intricate hand built details. You might get a few nerds interested if it's something super novel (like rewriting a major modern web app without any 3rd party libraries that is 30x more performant), but most people dont care. Extra true for businesses, I can't think of a business other than maybe a mom&pop shop or a place where showing wealth is important where they wouldnt happily issue casio watches far before they would consider a rolex.
Legend24408 days ago
I think this is a bad example.

Handmade watches are a tiny, niche market; they survive only because they've positioned themselves as a status symbol. Quartz watches are both cheaper and more accurate.

There is not room in the world for more handmade watchmakers, and there's not going to be room for much "artisan software" either.

jrflo9 days ago
Yeah, I have a really hard time buying the "AI code isn't maintainable long term" because if you look at the quality increase from January of this year to now, it's insane. We've gone from Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.4 to Fable 5.1 and GPT 6 in less than a year, where we went from 0 mathematics problems being solved by AI to a Millennium prize problem being solved in a few days of compute. Obviously not the same as coding skills, but it shows the growth in raw reasoning and abstraction.

I understand why people are resistant to this from an emotional perspective, but I really don't see a plateau in sight. RLVR is clearly still cooking and narrow RSI seems to be on the horizon.

But I'm also a realist. If the technology exists, it will be used to the maximum economical extent.

bigstrat20038 days ago
> if you look at the quality increase from January of this year to now, it's insane.

It's non-existent. LLMs still suck at writing code just as much as they did at the beginning of 2026, or 2025 for that matter. LLM proponents are always trying to hype everyone up on the supposed improvements, but they have never yet been real. That means they are unlikely to be real in the future either.

falserum8 days ago
We still have to wait for actual cost of generated tokens to be revealed.

Economics depend on that a lot.

samuraijack9 days ago
> I've accepted that in 5-10 years, the vast majority of human devs. and engineers will not touch a single line of code.

Why would companies employ human engineers then? What is the value addition to justify high human salaries. If AI is going to get so good (and I am not saying it won’t happen, that’s a separate debate), why can’t AI figure out the prompts itself?

draftsman9 days ago
That is where a lot of people in tech believe things are headed, executives in particular. Fully autonomous AI-driven codebases. “Dark factories.” One agent generating a plan, one writing the code, one responsible for testing and validating, and one to orchestrate the rest. The idea is software development will follow in the footsteps of physical manufacturing and eventually become fully automated. I think one huge flaw with this belief/comparison is that the automated assembly line is deterministic. LLMs and AI agents are not. Every Tacoma made on the Toyota assembly line is made from the same blueprint. There are no robots deciding on-the-fly whether to use a laser weld or an adhesive, what material to use for a specific component, etc. Now think about how LLMs build software. No matter how strict a harness or detailed spec you give it, it will always make decisions. That is what makes it “agentic” after all.
Aozora79 days ago
We'll probably get there, once frontier labs RL the fuck out of AI agents sitting in meetings and interpreting incoherent ramblings of business majors into actionable requirements. That's the biggest value human devs currently provide.

Yes, AI for now has significant code quality issues, but that's mostly because it lacks agency to take care of code quality unless you explicitly tell it to. It is good at refactoring its own messes when you even vaguely ask for it. So while something like Astra still needs supervision to produce decent code, I expect that in a year or two it will be unnecessary.

xpct9 days ago
I'm in the same boat. When I started thinking about LLM development as multi-year iterative training adjustments, it felt like the majority of shortcomings can be addressed.
peterpanhead9 days ago
Man.. just code, let people build, design, adjust. Who cares? Who are these people writing these posts? Why should we give anything they have to say warrant? These posts are getting old, very quick.
goda909 days ago
I work in an industry where software bugs can cause real harm to real people. I care that my coworkers are producing more bugs than ever because they don't take the time to think about the code anymore.
pixl979 days ago
Then where are your industrial controls to catch bugs before they are introduced to the product? Where is the feedback loop to the developers running the AI to control the situation?
sanderjd9 days ago
Isn't this a testing and validation problem?
kkapelon9 days ago
It is a warning to developers who don't understand the trade-offs involved.

Also a confirmation to people who have the same inner thoughts and are ashamed to admit in public that they think the exact same thing.

I think we need such kind of posts to combat the influx of AI news.

mathgeek9 days ago
It's a product of the times. You have some folks who are really passionate about the craft of software, some folks to whom it's just a job, and an entire culture that promotes and incentivizes engagement through raw emotional connection (outrage, passion, pick an emotion).

What you don't see from most perspectives are the silent masses who simply don't engage, don't care about the discussion, and/or are too busy doing what they enjoy.

sanderjd9 days ago
I think too many people (very much including me) who are "passionate about the craft of software" allowed themselves to become too focused on the code itself as if that were the first order concern of the craft. But the craft has always been about the quality of the software, including how its quality changes as a function of time and adaptation. Code quality is only in support of that concern, it is not itself the primary concern.

It has been a fairly painful experience for me to shift my thinking on this, but it's a much better mindset. I still care about many of the same code quality concerns I always have, but I'm thinking a lot more about why I care than I once did.

zxor9 days ago
I don't know, we spent the last few years with tons of posts telling us "coding is dead" and the biggest companies in the world telling us our jobs are going to go extinct.

That mindset has also deteriorated my working environment due to some coworkers buying into it.

So it's kind of nice to see some sanity checks that align with my beliefs too. I can share articles like this with my teammates. I can see that I'm not alone in thinking most LLM code is slop.

I think too junior devs NEED to see this. My team had a couple of promising juniors who are now completely brain rotted by AI and can't even write "Hello World" without consulting Claude anymore.

sanderjd9 days ago
Yeah I agree. We're still swinging this pendulum. We haven't found the stable equilibrium yet. It's useful for people to keep having this debate.
bakugo9 days ago
> Who cares? Who are these people writing these posts? Why should we give anything they have to say warrant? These posts are getting old, very quick.

Anyone could say the same about any post they don't agree with, doesn't seem very helpful.

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