In one of my classes I asked the question I was afraid to ask but I just needed the answer to: “Who is afraid of not getting a job after graduating?” About eighty percent of the 150 people in the room…

185 points•pretext•9 days ago•105 comments•

105 comments

JSavageOne9 days ago
> "The prediction was that software engineers would lose their jobs first, and the recent trend went the other way: demand for software engineers is higher than ever"

Hard to take anything the author says seriously making nonsensical claims like this. The software engineering job market has been getting worse every year since 2022 by virtually every metric. This is especially true at the entry and mid level. For example, computer engineering and computer science majors now have the #2 and #4 highest unemployment rates amongst recent graduates [1]

Students are smart to be cautious about the future, and it's annoying that adults with no skin in the game so flippantly dismiss these concerns without any data to back it up.

[1] https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market?utm...

sakopov9 days ago
The market rebound appears to be mostly in senior roles [1] while everyone else are falling out of favor including new grads. Definitely puts the "higher than ever" claim in question. Indeed is looking at job postings data and I personally think this is a poor unit of measure. In my humble opinion the market isn't anywhere near where it used to be even several years prior to the pandemic.

[1] https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/07/08/ai-and-job-postings-...

api9 days ago
Even before AI we were trending toward an economy with very few entry level jobs anywhere. AI is supercharging this, and I can easily now imagine a future where there's basically zero (good) jobs for anyone who isn't an expert.

So how do we get the next generation of senior professionals then?

This, I think, is a civilization-scale problem we will need to confront in the next 20-ish years.

sheepscreek9 days ago
Even for seniors, pretty sure jobs aren’t at all what they used to be. I think more and more of us are losing the little job satisfaction we had. Working on other people’s tasks with AI agents is nothing short of being a paper pusher.

Don’t get me wrong, as a technologist, I feel AI is the most incredible thing in the field of computer science. I love having a team of my agents for stuff I care about. For stuff I care about.

So perhaps now more than ever, it’s important to land a job you actually care about. In a field or domain you want to serve. To actually make a difference somewhere and find meaning.

deterministic9 days ago
> Working on other people’s tasks with AI agents is nothing short of being a paper pusher.

Not my experience at all. I love not having to do the low-level code writing. I’ve been doing that for 30+ years, so I’m more than happy to let the AI handle that part now!

pdntspa9 days ago
Anecdotally, the volume of recruiter spam for senior-ish positions I've been getting through email has picked up. Still nowhere near pre-COVID levels.
deterministic7 days ago
> nothing short of being a paper pusher

Hey, show a little respect for the paper pushers. Without them, civilization would collapse. And that’s not even a joke. :)

rsl19 days ago
> I love having a team of my agents for stuff I care about. For stuff I care about.

100% agree, for things I don't really care about its just draining. Its a bit of having the cake and eating it at the same time

smokel9 days ago
The number of graduates has grown even more dramatically. The job market not being able to keep up with that could make both your and the OP's statements correct.
lupire9 days ago
In addition, per OP's own source, Computer Eng and Comp Science have the highest Median Wage Early Career. That's a great trade for slightly higher unemployment rate.
dukeyukey9 days ago
I can't speak for the graduate or American market, but I can tell you the market for reasonably experienced software people in London is hot. Loads of hiring and salaries are going up.
plastic-enjoyer9 days ago
> Students are smart to be cautious about the future, and it's annoying that adults with no skin in the game so flippantly dismiss these concerns without any data to back it up.

But does it really matter? If the promises associated with AI come true, it won’t really matter what degree you get or what trade you learn, because humam jobs will be a problem solved sooner rather than later.

wrs9 days ago
> What has to go is the paper as the unit of achievement, the thing that gets counted and compared. If the ecosystem is the unit of research, then building something that other people can build on has to count for more than the next increment.

The focus on building stuff as the measure of accomplishment is one reason I so enjoyed being at CMU a few decades ago, so I'm very happy to see this sentiment is still expressed by the new generation of faculty.

ro_bit9 days ago
Many people in the thread are calling out AI-isms and nonsensical parts of the article. Articles like this have gotten so tiring. Is there a single place left to go on the internet where people write their own work? Or at least read it before publishing.
ericd9 days ago
Well, the guy is a professor in AI. So I'd not look for 100% human-written prose from him.

But I'd also not dismiss what Tim has to say. For much longer than this stuff has been super hyped, he's reliably been one of the best sources of info on some of this stuff, especially about GPUs and how to run things locally.

AnodicElegy9 days ago
Do these historically respected folks not realize they are trashing their reputations by publishing this stuff?
agosz9 days ago
> The difficulty did not disappear. It moved. It is no longer hard to publish a paper. It is hard to publish a coherent ecosystem.

Terrible article. It's full of these; it's tell-tale LLM. I'm surprised people post these, especially after all the articles that got upvoted that people hate LLM written articles.

Nevertheless, my curiosity got the better of me, and I thought the author might have some valuable insight further down. I skimmed forward where he talks about pessimism and came across this:

> the “software engineer” job no longer exists — and both are now within reach: agent skills come with time, and deep specialization, which used to take years, is quick to acquire with agents.

This is just plain wrong with the experience we've had ramping up juniors on my team (compiler backend). It still takes a long time to get to know the domain. Agents can't replace context and knowledge about the whole system and how it fits together with other systems and the use cases it might be subjected to. Agents can help accelerate it, but it doesn't feel like it has been "quick to acquire" for the juniors that joined my team.

blastingrock9 days ago
Horrid to see a university professor publish an AI-generated article
flanked-evergl9 days ago
Is it really surprising? Universities are not really interested in anything other than politics.
lupire9 days ago
Interestiny, the article mentions that, in comtext of PhD students desperate to escape to industry labs.

Read the full thread on Hacker News →

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