144 points•Brajeshwar•9 days ago•147 comments•

147 comments

cogman109 days ago
I disagree with this article and here's why.

Life isn't black and white with "good/bad". Further, there's no objective measure of what is good or bad. Everything is a shade of gray.

You certainly could argue that some actions are absolutely good or absolutely bad, but those aren't the majority of actions people take on a day to day basis. People aren't often faced with "should I kill this person" or "should I publish the cure for cancer". Instead it's "should I eat a hamburger or a salad" or "Should I finish this jira case or that jira case".

For example, you could argue that anyone working in an automotive plant is doing something bad because they are helping to produce vehicles which burn fuel which perpetuates climate change. But those plants also often produce parts for farm equipment or vehicles used to transport necessities like food.

People working at AI companies can make similar personal calculations. Like yeah there are bad things happening because of AI, but also they can believe that there are good things that can come as a result such as research and product developments.

dofm9 days ago
There may not be a definition of “good”.

But there are several workable contextual definitions of bad; it’s your job to know what they are.

For example:

- it would cause a harm to someone who was not made aware of the risk up front.

- it would cause someone to lose a job they didn’t know was under threat.

- the way the harm occurs precludes its only corrective/curative action or has no adequate compensation.

Bad things are almost always contextual but also almost always obvious in that context.

You can’t avoid bad things that you can’t foresee. If you do not attempt to avoid, avert or mitigate bad things that you can foresee, then you are one of the bad things.

Things may not always be black and white but it is wise not to seek the protection of the grey.

SaltyBackendGuy9 days ago
> it would cause someone to lose a job they didn’t know was under threat

Under this guidance, wouldn't almost every technological advancement then qualify as bad? i.e. typewriter repair, etc.

arrowleaf9 days ago
"- it would cause someone to lose a job they didn’t know was under threat."

Most of my life's work has been in areas of increasing productivity. Is that good or bad? On the good side of the spectrum, it reduces the time hundred of people need to spend on mundane tasks, or reducing the amount of mentally taxing complexity. On the bad side, based on this definition, there is less of a need to hire someone with specialized talent when the software can handle what their job function would be.

I've always felt kind of bad helping companies automate people out of jobs, that's the core of what most of us writing software are doing. Maybe I am a bad person.

wavemode9 days ago
But what if (as the commenter you're responding to stated) someone believes that AI will have a positive effect on humanity? Is it morally wrong for them to disagree with your view?
moolcool9 days ago
You can also use moral relativism to cope with doing basically anything unethical, especially so when you’re offered dump trucks full of money.
cogman109 days ago
My point is that these articles are ineffective and miss the point. It's not about moral relativism but rather that morals aren't universally shared or understood.

Ultimately, pretty much everyone feels like they are a good person, so "you doing a bad thing makes you bad" doesn't really square away especially when that person's personal moral calculus can see their actions as being a net good.

It's pretty hard to shame someone out of a job even if most people view at as net negative on society (boat loads of money and all).

That's why I disagree with all the framing of the article.

graemep9 days ago
A few big good/bad decisions are more important than thousands of trivial decisions.

Balancing good against bad is not clear, I agree, but that makes it all the more important to think about it when making a big decision such as what job to take.

Its hard and people do not even agree about how to balance it - e.g. whether the ends justify the means.

cogman109 days ago
Well that's my point. Someone working as a geologist for the oil industry can think climate change isn't real or not a problem so they can view their job of finding more oil as being a clear benefit for society.

No amount of trying to tell them "But you are doing something bad by helping the oil industry" will make them reconsider if they are good or bad. But I also wouldn't say they are necessarily bad people. You can also simply just be wrong or misinformed when you make your moral calculation.

Good people do bad things sometimes. Bad people do good things sometimes. That's why the framing of badness as a taint isn't really helpful IMO. It creates a "us vs them" sort of attitude that ultimately doesn't address whatever issue is at hand.

ArcHound9 days ago
I agree.

In the particular case of AI companies, I think a handbrake should be pulled when they start claiming things like "10% chance we're ending humanity."

ReturnoftheHack9 days ago
This. I wouldn't step on an airplane if someone told me there's a 10% chance it could explode into a ball of flames. Would anyone?
tetha9 days ago
I would rather say the argument is simplified, but on a decent track. Because there are two angles to it.

I've been wondering what sectors I wouldn't maintain and develop infrastructure for, because I consider it a strength of mine that I don't entirely care about that. I'm not excited about your product, for good or bad.

Defense for example is on an edge there. Supporting the creation of death and suffering in other humans does not sit right with me. Being defenseless doesn't sit right either, as it can create suffering and death for people I know as well.

Online gambling is more on the nope side. Maybe with a decent regulated german company, but if you start working with some eastern-europan online video gambling sites with pretty girls as dealers, you are suddenly very close to human trafficking and many more things connected to it.

So I guess directly causing human suffering and pain is a boundary for me. And yes, if you push that argument to an extreme, if you search long enough, you realize that pure existence causes suffering to other people, animals and the planet and must be ceased.

But then there is that other side - in the current system (and arguably many before) you have to do a job to get money to live, and a lot of people like the person making cars have no choice about that. I guess we are contributing to that suffering as well by existing.

So, minimizing the direct suffering and pain I cause seems to be a sensible directive.

oconnor6639 days ago
> do not consider yourself a contributor to humankind

Good lord. You could apply the same logic to any taxpaying resident of any country whose government is doing something bad. There's some truth to it, it's worth bearing in mind, but it's also the very definition of an Isolated Demand for Rigor.

customguy9 days ago
> it's also the very definition of an Isolated Demand for Rigor.

As if the author excluded other examples? What is your criticism, that the principle can also be applied to other things?

petesergeant9 days ago
> Isolated Demand for Rigor

That is a fantastic term for something that seems to come up a lot, and I had not heard before.

applfanboysbgon9 days ago
> You could apply the same logic to any taxpaying resident of any country whose government is doing something bad.

You can't, because those taxes are coerced from you at literal gunpoint if you refuse (or your property seized at gunpoint to the same effect). It's completely different than choosing to do that of your own free will.

When I was in the US, I did actively attempt to diminish my tax contribution as much as legally possible out of disgust at what it was used for, but nobody is morally tainted for being forced to contribute a small slice to something evil. Maybe there's a threshold where you should be actively laying down your life to resist, eg. if being forced to commit actual murder, but I don't think you can reasonably expect that of paying taxes at all.

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Edit: rate-limited, attaching a reply to a below comment.

> The problem with avoiding taxes because of expenditures you think are bad is that you also reduce the pool available for things you think are good.

Indeed, but I also chose to contribute money to other good causes instead. In that way, the same sum could be used for 100% good instead of, say, 80% good 20% bad.

Now that I live in a country of my choosing, I am proud to pay taxes because of how they are used. 0% of my tax money goes to killing innocent people overseas, for instance.

rpdillon9 days ago
> When I was in the US, I did actively attempt to diminish my tax contribution as much as legally possible

I like how this is being spun as virtuous. When multinational trillion-dollar companies do it, we say it's bad!

gretch9 days ago
> but I don't think you can reasonably expect that of paying taxes at all.

You should beware that you've rationalized everything you do as good enough, and everything that other people do is morally questionable.

Have you set the bar for what is 'reasonable' to be extremely convenient for your own circumstances?

graemep9 days ago
> When I was in the US, I did actively attempt to diminish my tax contribution as much as legally possible out of disgust at what it was used for

Social security? Medicare?

The problem with avoiding taxes because of expenditures you think are bad is that you also reduce the pool available for things you think are good. Every country will do a mix of things you judge good, and things you judge bad.

> nobody is morally tainted for being forced to contribute a small slice to something evil

I agree.

ArcHound9 days ago
Generally, I agree.

Imagine: you start working at the company with a good will towards them. As you learn more and see more decisions, you slowly realize how bad it is. Now you've already contributed. Then you leave.

It might be possible to build everything with this goodwill and that's how we'd still end up with a torment nexus even if you immediately drop it.

What I'm saying is, at one point you have to break the company fully.

I'm not sure what more we need to wait for, if the claim "10% it ends humanity" is not enough.

sandeepkd9 days ago
There is a lot more to it, an assumption is being made that somehow its easy to classify a company being god or bad and same for people. In reality, everyones life experiences shape them differently, the moral compass of right and wrong isn't same for everyone. Leaving that aside people are not just managing their feelings alone, more than often they are responsible for other people in the family as well and the impact of decision can have far reaching impact. Making a decision when you are single vs with kids and a mortgage are two different things.

Good people can be in tough position where even when they do not agree they may not have much of an option but to keep going.

ArcHound9 days ago
I think we are in agreement.

What I wanted to say is that usually people start with good intentions and only later they realize they are contributing to a torment nexus.

What you are saying definitely plays a role and it makes doing moral choices difficult.

seiferteric9 days ago
If it's "10% it ends humanity" and "20% it solves climate change and saves humanity" then is it still bad?
mofeien9 days ago
Potentially. If we could put a precise probability on it, we could maybe make an informed decision on whether we want to play that Russian roulette as a species.

But the reality is that experts' probabilities for human extinctions vary wildly, with the lab leaders at 20%-30% and these researchers at >10% (he didn't state how much higher...), LeCun at <0.01% and the other two godfathers of AI, Bengio and Hinton at >10%.

And this decision to take our shot is not taken in a democratic way by humanity as a whole, but by a few companies racing as fast as possible.

So as long as no one can put an upper bound on the extinction risk, development must be globally shut down.

ArcHound9 days ago
Any indication how it could solve climate change?

Because I'm seeing mainly hacker attacks, job insecurity, environmental impacts and vague threats with smiling faces.

goatlover9 days ago
It's bad that a few people are making such a gamble on behalf of billions. That could work if climate change were literally an asteroid about to strike the Earth and AI was the only thing that could figure out how to alter it's course before then. But it doesn't really work when climate change will unfold as a catastrophe over the next few centuries. Because then it becomes a decision the entire planet should be making over time, not a few tech billionaires and their friends in government.
spencerflem9 days ago
AI is a massive contributor to climate change lol
godwinson__4-89 days ago
Compelling argument. All involved in this AI endeavor should be forced to answer: What other made up figure are you waiting for!?
tptacek9 days ago
The author of this blog is an AI skeptic (see the backlog of posts). That's fine, but it's hard to square with this particular post. To take Coxon's argument seriously, you have to believe frontier models are hypercapable, and not just hype objects. That's what Coxon believes and why he left.
moolcool9 days ago
All OP has to believe is that Coxon himself believes the hype.
tptacek9 days ago
I guess if the entire argument is that people should make moral choices in their employment, sure, but that's not a very interesting piece; people generally already believe that.

But I don't think that's their argument. I think their argument is that people should make moral choices to avoid employment with AI firms, and if you're using Coxon for that argument, you can't coherently argue that models are hype objects simultaneously. There is no greater claim you can make about AI hypercapability than that it will eradicate humanity.

(I don't buy any of those claims, for what it's worth.)

dsign9 days ago
> To take Coxon's argument seriously, you have to believe frontier models are hypercapable, and not just hype objects.

It's harder and harder to make the point that frontier objects are just hype objects though. And, even if they stay where they are today, that's more than enough to make them incredibly...destabilizing, to say the least. It's not only it, but frontier models act like knowledge mixers and percolators. Some people (not necessarily everybody), are adept at the discipline of learning, building things and executing projects, and that's all you need today with LLMs filling many of the gaps such person can have. Now, most of those people are actually engineers. So I'm going to go with the article and say that we must stop selling our souls for money.

goatlover9 days ago
Hype objects when it comes to the idea that they will soon become recursively self-improving, boot strapping themselves to super intelligence, at which point we will be at their mercy. Because that's basically the p(doom) argument, that some probability is associated with ASI killing us all.

That's different from what we have today with powerful software tools that people can use for all sorts of things, which is an extension of what we already had in less concentrated form. It makes things easier for humans to do good and bad things, but it's not an autonomous digital god.

Aurornis9 days ago
> More than half of tech workers (53%) would steer a newcomer away from their own field, and they stay.

It would be nice to see this survey repeated across professions. In my experience, most people have gripes about their profession because it’s what they know. Only half of respondents saying they would steer newcomers away feels a lot better than what my friends in medicine say all the time. Among my college professor and professor-track friends, this number probably reaches 100%.

bornfreddy9 days ago
Also, how does this number (53%) compare to pre-LLM numbers?
fodkodrasz9 days ago
I definitely would not have steered people away earlier, but would be now.
autoexec9 days ago
I think more important than the percentages are the reasons why someone would steer others away from their chosen profession.

Read the full thread on Hacker News →

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