When I look at why I expect the world to change a lot in the next few years, and why other people expect slower changes, I think a big component is disagreement on the extent to which AI will affect non-computer work.…

43 points•luu•11 days ago•46 comments•

46 comments

hdgvhicv8 days ago
Sounds basically like the plot of the first Dystopia in Marshall Brain’s manna

https://web.archive.org/web/20260725174355/https://marshallb...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41743688

AndrewKemendo8 days ago
I use this reference all the time because it’s literally and I do mean literally the state of a significant portion of retail workers

This is how target workers live

cameldrv8 days ago
Can you elaborate? How do Target workers live?
voakbasda8 days ago
Yup. Some people read dystopian fiction as an instruction manual.
jjav8 days ago
One has to wonder if we're seeing something like this with Mitch McConnell. It sure looks creepy.
modeless8 days ago
Wow, thanks for linking this. I must have read it once in the distant past but it seems far more relevant today.
lbrito8 days ago
The author uses a strange definition of teleoperation.

Following GPS directions is no different than assembling an Ikea furniture by following the instructions. So I guess Ikea has been teleoperating millions of humans for decades?

pvab38 days ago
I think it has to do with the feedback loop. Ikea doesn't know what you're doing and can't adjust and adapt to provide you with new instructions if you take a wrong turn.
in_absentia8 days ago
It's something that you'd pause and think about if you were trying to carefully craft a sensible argument. But the online attention economy now runs on AI op-eds. In this world of overabundance, the winning strategy is to produce outrageous takes and do it as quickly as possible.

I respect the author, but he succumbed to an... unnecessary temptation. There will be a dozen other "here's what AI means for humanity" posts on HN before the end of the week. For the human-written ones, I doubt that any of the authors will be proud of their analyses five years from now.

macNchz8 days ago
> If you had an expert looking over your shoulder and telling you what to do, I expect most of you could do most of the work of an electrician … In fact, that's the bulk of how electricians learn their trade: through apprenticeship. People wearing glasses with built-in cameras, connected to today's strongest AIs could already do a lot with a bit of scaffolding.

Apprentices have their work directly checked by the person supervising them, who is also ultimately personally responsible for the results.

I am a programmer but also like to work with my hands—I’ve done some amount of "real" electrical, plumbing, carpentry, light construction, mechanical, and landscaping work. To me, this line of thinking overall falls into a category of "things computer programmers believe about other kinds of jobs," that I see fairly often on HN. It’s key to the whole argument here but kind of papered over with an unvalidated assumption it’d probably already work with today’s AI.

Anyone who has followed a DIY YouTube video more than a few times has encountered situations where having muscle memory and proprioceptive experience with actually manipulating the tools and objects you’re working with would significantly reduce the chance you mess it up. How tight is too tight? Am I going to shear this bolt head off? Is this saw blade getting dull and going to hurt me? Even the best guides and teachers don’t cover the combinatoric ways things can frequently go wrong–it’s accumulated knowledge in the heads and hands of people who don’t blog about it so it can be slurped into training data.

I think there’s an enormous chasm between "can AI provide reasonably correct guidance for an inexperienced person along a happy path to accomplish basic physical tasks" and "I no longer need to hire an electrician because AI guides me through every step."

pixl978 days ago
Sounds like we're just one step away from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manna_(short_story)
jefftk8 days ago
I think you might be thinking of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manna_(novel) ?
weakfish8 days ago
Weird to see Cary mentioned as the setting
pixl978 days ago
Crap, you're right. The Brian Marshall one.
Archelaos8 days ago
> The classic picture of AIs doing things in the world is robots, but I think a more realistic picture of the near future is computers telling people what to do.

As a purely qualitative description, this does not strike me as anything particularly new. Machines had been doing something like this long before the computer age. For example, as early as the late Middle Ages, mechanical wheel-driven clocks with striking mechanisms were used to call people to prayer.

Any process in which a person reacts to a machine can be characterised in this way. Every till that calculates how much one has to pay, every traffic light, every other machine-generated signal. When a warning light comes on in the car, we are prompted to do something: release the handbrake properly, fasten our seatbelt, visit a garage, ...

We are already so deeply embedded in such cycles that AI seems to be merely a new variation on them than a fundamental change.

The deep sense of unease regarding AI does not stem from a machine telling us what to do, but from the risk of losing control over the situation as a whole.

Read the full thread on Hacker News →

Related stories