398 points•z-mach9•12 days ago•179 comments•

179 comments

cwal3712 days ago
For those who don’t know:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

(which also banned box office receipt futures)

A fun thing is to go on FRED and make a graph with prices from onions and, say, corn to see the differences in volatility.

chirau12 days ago
I looked up onions, lettuce and tomatoes (because burgers), and the volatility actually looks very similar. Am I missing something or looking at the wrong things?

Tomato: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU01130217 Onion: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU01130216 Lettuce: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU01130215

repiret11 days ago
Lettuce and Tomatoes don't keep well, which adds more seasonal variability and reduces the ability of a futures market to smooth prices.

Compare with potatoes, which keep about as well an onions, and are farmed in the same areas. Look at onions and potatoes over a 5-year time span (because the default all-data time span is silly for this). It doesn't give enough control of the Y axis to make the comparison easy - for potatoes it shows me Y=40-320, for a range of 280; for onions it shows me Y=120-440, for a range of 320. This means that potatoes are more "zoomed in" and it's graph will exaggerate volatility relative to onions, but qualitatively, I'd say the potato graph looks smother just the same. This is exactly what economic theory says a futures market should do to the price.

bz_bz_bz11 days ago
None of the products you’ve chosen have a substantial futures market, which is why the person you responded to chose corn to make their point.
gradus_ad12 days ago
The weather affects all crops
samaltman212 days ago
Interesting. This would be more sensible if it was time-bound. Since the intention was clearly "stop a bad thing someone is doing right now" and not "make this field illegal forever"
lukan12 days ago
So this is genuine free market activism?
Avicebron12 days ago
What will the kids think up next?
mauvehaus12 days ago
This has to have been the inspiration for Milo Minderbinder cornering the cotton market in Catch-22, right?
echelon11 days ago
The box office receipts ban is hilarious.

I suppose that prevents Kalshi gambling on box office duds?

Barbing12 days ago
> FAQ

>Is this legal?

>Yes, to the best of our knowledge. 7 U.S. Code § 13-1 prohibits "contract[s] for the sale of [...] onions for future delivery [...] on or subject to the rules of any board of trade in the United States." The San Francisco Onion Futures Company is not a board of trade, defined as an "organized exchange or other trading facility". We sell contracts privately to individual buyers, and do not operate any exchange or secondary market.

Performance art against that law?

Also November onions are an absolute steal compared to the adjacent months!

dougSF7012 days ago
I believe 10/15 is a huge harvest day for Vidalia(??) Onions so crop will be scarce leading up to the harvest. As my multi-player free farming simulator has shown me. https://farm-mp.frontpageintelligence.ai/
HnUser1211 days ago
Apparently I cannot join. It says the world is full. Did all of HN join?
conorcleary12 days ago
This is really neat, but, the wages and other costs are way too ballooned to envision as a simulator parallel to 'real life' farming.
asdfasvea11 days ago
November pumpkins is where the money is.
hyperhello12 days ago
> The San Francisco Onion Futures Company is not a board of trade, defined as an "organized exchange or other trading facility".

I hate to argue but then what would they define this as, if not an organized exchange or other trading facility?

FBT12 days ago
7 USC § 1a(37) defines an "organized exchange" as

> [A] trading facility that— (A) permits trading— (i) by or on behalf of a person that is not an eligible contract participant; or (ii) by persons other than on a principal-to-principal basis; or (B) has adopted (directly or through another nongovernmental entity) rules that— (i) govern the conduct of participants, other than rules that govern the submission of orders or execution of transactions on the trading facility; and (ii) include disciplinary sanctions other than the exclusion of participants from trading.

And 7 USC § 1a(51)(A) defines a "trading facility" as

> [A] person or group of persons that constitutes, maintains, or provides a physical or electronic facility or system in which multiple participants have the ability to execute or trade agreements, contracts, or transactions— (i) by accepting bids or offers made by other participants that are open to multiple participants in the facility or system; or (ii) through the interaction of multiple bids or multiple offers within a system with a pre-determined non-discretionary automated trade matching and execution algorithm.

(7 USC § 1a(51)(B) then follows with some exceptions to that definition.)

In short—an "organized exchange" is defined as a type of "trading facility". To count as a trading facility", whether of the "organized exchange" type or not, you must either accept bids or offers from other participants yourself or else deterministically match and execute those bids and offers.

riffraff12 days ago
I think their point is there's no "peer to peer" trading so it's not an exchange. You're always contracting futures with them, so it's more like a vegetables seller than a trading facility.
lq9AJ8yrfs11 days ago
Broker or dealer. Per the interwebs, a broker acts on behalf of another party, vs a dealer trades for themselves.

As distinguished from an exchange, where the exchange intermediates and becomes a middle party "simultaneously" to both sides.

The market dynamics are pretty different between broker dealers and exchanges. For instance a /ticker/ as a concept makes sense only with an exchange.

The exchanges basically pick up only the contracts or goods with the most volume and standardized & predictable goods.

To trade more exotic or niche things basically you have to find your own counterparty, versus the exchange acts as an "typical" buyer and seller to each side (assuming there is anyone there at all to participate on each side... giving rise to the concept of market makers who undertake to do just that, i.e., to be ready to trade either side at any time in a certain good).

quirkot12 days ago
Legal defense is basically "nuh uh"
haakon12 days ago
Since this may be a legal gray area, they should host it on a Tor onion site.
thedrexster12 days ago
oooo, that's a missed opportunity
envoked12 days ago
For those unfamiliar, there's an excellent Planet Money episode on how trading onion futures got banned in the 50s.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/10/14/448718171/epis...

shoo12 days ago
US Department of Agriculture publishes a national potato & onion report (issued daily!):

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvdidnop.pdf

Readers may wish to skip ahead to page 4, where onions are discussed.

boscillator11 days ago
They have what appears to be a screenshot of an excel document (complete with sort and filter widgets), except I can select the text, so perhaps it's an embedded excel sheet inside a word doc?

Either way, I love it and I'm always excited to learn about what mundane functions the government and MS Office are keeping alive for society.

Read the full thread on Hacker News →

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